Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study

Abstract

The need for energy storage to balance intermittent and inflexible electricity supply with demand is driving interest in conversion of renewable electricity via electrolysis into a storable gas. But, high capital cost and uncertainty regarding future cost and performance improvements are barriers to investment in water electrolysis. Expert elicitations can support decision-making when data are sparse and their future development uncertain. Therefore, this study presents expert views on future capital cost, lifetime and efficiency for three electrolysis technologies: alkaline (AEC), proton exchange membrane (PEMEC) and solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). Experts estimate that increased R&D funding can reduce capital costs by 0–24%, while production scale-up alone has an impact of 17–30%. System lifetimes may converge at around 60,000–90,000 h and efficiency improvements will be negligible. In addition to innovations on the cell-level, experts highlight improved production methods to automate manufacturing and produce higher quality components. Research into SOECs with lower electrode polarisation resistance or zero-gap AECs could undermine the projected dominance of PEMEC systems. This study thereby reduces barriers to investment in water electrolysis and shows how expert elicitations can help guide near-term investment, policy and research efforts to support the development of electrolysis for low-carbon energy systems

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“…[47] AECs are the one of the simple water electrolysis technologies widely used for applications. [47] AECs are the one of the simple water electrolysis technologies widely used for applications.…”

“…[47] AECs are the one of the simple water electrolysis technologies widely used for applications. [47] PEMECsa re built with solid polymer electrolyte and are useful in small-scale applications as the cell design is complex and requires expensive catalysts and fluorinated membranes,b ut the cells provide high powerd ensity and efficiency. [48] AECs offer the advantage of simplicity and so the present research is mainly focused on increasingt he current density and efficiencyo ft he cells.…”

“…[47] PEMECsa re built with solid polymer electrolyte and are useful in small-scale applications as the cell design is complex and requires expensive catalysts and fluorinated membranes,b ut the cells provide high powerd ensity and efficiency. [47] Presently,S OEC cells are only demonstrated on al aboratory scale and investigation into improvingt heir suitability forc ommercial applications is underway. [50] SOECs are designed by using solid ion-conducting ceramics as the electrolyte.…”

Coupled Production of Steel and Chemicals

“…Investment costs for the required water electrolysis capacity of 3.7 GW el were estimated from to ca. € 2.44 billion.…”

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“…Solar energy is the key objective in the field of advanced technologies in science and engineering , while the production of hydrogen (H 2 ) via visible light‐driven photocatalysis process is the main direction of renewable energy for current research , . For selection of photocatalytic materials for photocatalysis for environmental and energy applications, titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) is considered as the most favorable photochemical material due to the advantages of low cost, nontoxicity, photostability, high efficiency, and chemical inertness with biocompatibility .…”