Future changes and uncertainties in temperature and precipitation over China based on CMIP5 models

Tian, Di; Guo, Yan; Dong, Wenjie

doi:10.1007/s00376-014-4102-7

Cited by 98 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Consistent with our result, several studies have supported the intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon under global warming based on CMIP5 projections (e.g. Chen & Sun 2013, Jiang & Tian 2013, Seo et al 2013, Lee & Wang 2014, Qu et al 2014, Tian et al 2015. As shown in Chapter 14 of the IPCC AR5 (Christensen et al 2013), CMIP5 projections indicate a likely increase in both the circulation and rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon through the 21st century.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Daily Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 91%

Regional climate projection over South Korea simulated by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

Im¹,

Ahn²,

Jo³

2015

Clim. Res.

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This study assesses the regional climate projection newly generated within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. To obtain fine-scale climate information (12.5 km), dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041−2070 vs. 2071−2100) in which increasing rates of emission forcing between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are relatively similar and quite different, respectively. The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods.

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Section: Characteristics Of Daily Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 91%

Regional climate projection over South Korea simulated by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

Im¹,

Ahn²,

Jo³

2015

Clim. Res.

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“…Simultaneously, the winter precipitation in eastern China is projected to increase (Tian et al, 2015), but the surface winds are projected to decrease (Jiang et al, 2013). Thus there will be both favorable and unfavorable factors for haze occurrences in the near future based on the model projections.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the recent trend of haze pollution in eastern China: roles of climate change

2016

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Abstract. In this paper, the variation and trend of haze pollution in eastern China for winter of 1960-2012 were analyzed. With the overall increasing number of winter haze days in this period, the 5 decades were divided into three sub-periods based on the changes of winter haze days (WHD) in central North China (30-40 • N) and eastern South China (south of 30 • N) for east of 109 • E mainland China. Results show that WHD kept gradually increasing during 1960-1979, remained stable overall during 1980-1999, and increased fast during 2000-2012. The author identified the major climate forcing factors besides total energy consumption. Among all the possible climate factors, variability of the autumn Arctic sea ice extent, local precipitation and surface wind during winter is most influential to the haze pollution change. The joint effect of fast increase of total energy consumption, rapid decline of Arctic sea ice extent and reduced precipitation and surface winds intensified the haze pollution in central North China after 2000. There is a similar conclusion for haze pollution in eastern South China after 2000, with the precipitation effect being smaller and spatially inconsistent.

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“…The percentage of precipitation anomaly is an indicator that can characterize the precipitation amount that is more or less than the normal value over a certain period. It can directly reflect the drought caused by the precipitation anomaly, and is generally used to evaluate drought events at monthly, seasonal and annual timescales, as shown in Table 2 [28,29]. The precipitation anomaly percentage in a certain period can be calculated according to the following formula:…”

Section: Excessive Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Water Scarcity on the Fenhe River Basin and Mitigation Strategies

Shao

Cai

Luan

et al. 2017

Water

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This study produced a drought map for the Fenhe River basin covering the period from 150 BC to 2012 using regional historical drought records. Based on meteorological and hydrological features, the characteristics and causes of water scarcity in the Fenhe River basin were examined, along with their impact on the national economy and ecological environment. The effects of water scarcity in the basin on the national economy were determined from agricultural, industrial, and domestic perspectives. The impact on aquatic ecosystems was ascertained through an evolution trend analysis of surface water systems, including rivers, wetlands, and slope ecosystems, and subterranean water systems, including groundwater and karst springs. As a result of these analyses, strategies are presented for coping with water scarcity in this basin, including engineering countermeasures, such as the construction of a water network in Shanxi, and the non-engineering approach of groundwater resource preservation. These comprehensive coping strategies are proposed with the aim of assisting the prevention and control of water scarcity in the arid and semi-arid areas of China.

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Future changes and uncertainties in temperature and precipitation over China based on CMIP5 models

Cited by 98 publications

References 25 publications

Regional climate projection over South Korea simulated by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

Regional climate projection over South Korea simulated by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

Understanding the recent trend of haze pollution in eastern China: roles of climate change

Impact of Water Scarcity on the Fenhe River Basin and Mitigation Strategies

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