Further Development of Atmosphere Pressure Field Research in the Arctic Region of Russia

Abstract

The results of studies of atmospheric pressure in the Arctic region of Russia for the period from 1948 to 2008 presented. The analysis of the climatic seasonal variation of the atmospheric pressure fields has been carried out. As the main research method, the probabilistic and statistical analysis of the time series of the pressure field during 60 years at fixed points in the region of the Arctic zone of Russia was used. In total, about 90,000 daily (with a six-hour interval) pressure values were studied. Based on these data, the climatic seasonal variability was constructed as an averaging of the values of a given time series at each point in space and for a fixed date. The characteristics of the seasonal cycle, its amplitude and phase have been analyzed. Those characteristics were studied and their geophysical interpretation was carried out. In particular, the minimum and maximum values of the series were determined for the entire region and the time series of these characteristics were constructed. It is shown that the deviation is asymmetrical in nature; this is an unobvious result of research. For the maximum and minimum, the best approximations were proposed, and these approximations were tested by known methods of statistical analysis, including maximum likelihood, least squares and goodness of fit methods (tests), in particular, the ?2 test. The performed study has applications both purely physical (allows to explain the nature, genesis and distribution of large-scale atmospheric formations in a climatic year) and prognostic (allows to understand and track trends in climate, as well as to quantitatively estimate the scale and variability of large-scale atmospheric processes). Numerical calculations were performed on the Lomonosov-2 supercomputer of the Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov.