Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates perfectly how the operation of science changes when questions of urgency, stakes, values and uncertainty collide -in the 'post-normal' regime. Well before the coronavirus pandemic, statisticians were debating how to prevent malpractice such as p-hacking, particularly when it could influence policy 1 . Now, computer modelling is in the limelight, with politicians presenting their policies as dictated by 'science' 2 . Yet there is no substantial aspect of this pandemic for which any researcher can currently provide precise, reliable numbers. Known unknowns include the prevalence and fatality and reproduction rates of the virus in Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame.

From sociology of quantification to ethics of quantification

“…A poorly designed statistical analysis for medical treatments could squander billions and kill thousands (Harris, 2017). Poor modelling may lead to wrong, or simply unjustified, political choices (Saltelli, 2019;Saltelli et al, 2020aSaltelli et al, , 2020b. The proliferation of rankings of universities has profoundly altered higher education, making it into a global market and dramatically increasing prices for students and their families (O'Neil, 2016;Muller, 2018).…”

“…They note that "[I]f we base our pandemic response plans on flawed academic models, people die" (Taleb and Bar-Yam, 2020). The subject of modelling work for COVID-19 was the subject of several commentaries Pielke, 2020), including one involving the authors of this work in the journal Nature (Saltelli et al, 2020a). Here we stressed that modelling is a social activity and that more inclusive societal negotiations are needed in the framing of these mathematical objects.…”

“…The pandemic shows how numbers and their uncertainty-if not properly mastered-may play a dysfunctional role at the science policy interface (Saltelli et al, 2020a;Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000).…”

Platform and Data Co-Operatives amidst European Pandemic Citizenship

“…As such, this article aims to decipher the rationale behind the platform and data co-operatives by providing evidence-based research and policy analysis, and by responding to how new forms of co-operatives using digital technologies can provide a framework to rethink, renew, and offer alternatives to the way policies on digital transformations and AI can help enhance pandemic citizens' well-being and thus improve the post-COVID-19 working conditions of vulnerable and already empowered pandemic citizens [71]. This article thus reflects upon how democratic and participatory platforms can offer new non-capitalist labor environments in a post-COVID-19 world.…”

Some Challenges for the Human Brain in Communication With the Digital Society

“…We are not complaining about technological evolution nor to the production of massive digital data, but we would like to note some issues deserving careful attention when making a transition to a healthier and safer digital generation. Although we agree that our current digital society has the potential to provide us with information to solve long lasting social problems (Ledford, 2020;Shah, 2020), we have also to be aware that the technology we use for that purposes might be biased and not shifting the power status-quo generating those problems (Courtland, 2018;Kalluri, 2020;Saltelli et al, 2020). As a result, we would like to highlight some topics we think deserve some consideration to help future generations not to struggle with the social impact of digital communication.…”