Firms and the Global Crisis: French Exports in the Turmoil

Abstract

The unprecedented drop in international trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 has mostly been analysed at the macroeconomic or sectoral level. However, heterogeneous exporters in terms of productivity, size or external finance dependence should be hit differently by the crisis. This issue is examined here using data on monthly exports at the product and destination level for some 100,000 individual French exporters, up to 2009M4. We show that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters. Small and large firms are evenly affected when sectoral and geographical specialisations are controlled for. Lastly, firms (small and large) in sectors structurally more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis.Keywords: financial crisis, international trade, firms' heterogeneity, intensive and extensive margins JEL codes: F02, F10, G01 RésuméLa chute sans précédent du commerce international pendant le quatrième trimestre 2008 et le premier trimestre 2009 a été analysée au niveau macroéconomique ou sectoriel. Toutefois, des exportateurs qui sont hétérogènes en termes de productivité, de taille ou de dépendance à la finance externe devraient être touchés de manière différenciée. Cette question est analysée dans cet article en utilisant les données mensuelles d'exportations françaises désagrégées par produits et destinations, pour environ 100.000 entreprises exportatrices jusqu'en avril 2009. Nous montrons que la chute des exportations françaises est due principalement à la marge intensive des plus gros exportateurs. Tous les exportateurs, quelle que soit leur taille, sont cependant touchés de façon comparable quand on contrôle pour les effets liés aux spécialisations sectorielles et géographiques. Enfin, les entreprises, qu'elles soient grandes ou petites, appartenant aux secteurs qui sont structurellement les plus dépendants des financements externes, ont été les plus touchées par la crise.

International Transmission of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan

“…For example, some studies point out that global demand shifted away from durables to nondurables during the crisis (e.g. Levchenko et al ., ; Eaton et al ., ; Bricongne et al ., ). Other possible reasons why the drop in trade relative to GDP was particularly severe during the crisis were the fragmentation of supply chains (see Tanaka, ), the decline in trade finance (Amiti and Weinstein, ; Chor and Manova, ) and the fiscal stimulus packages that were oriented mostly toward non‐tradables such as construction.…”

“…Using a data set on French firms for the financial crisis, Bricongne et al . () explore the reasons for the trade collapse. They find that the trade collapse was mainly attributed to an unprecedented demand shock and by product characteristics, and that the overall impact of credit constraints on trade was limited.…”

“…Studies find evidence that suggests that some of these trade linkages play a role in the transmission of crises (e.g. Eichengreen et al ., ; Glick and Rose, ; Forbes, ; Eaton et al ., ; Bricongne et al ., ). …”

Exporters in the Financial Crisis

“…Chor and Manova (2012) use product level data on US imports, investigating the role of credit conditions as the main culprit for reducing trade during the crisis. Bricongne et al (2012), using firm level data for France, also investigate the effects of the crisis, and focus on financial variables at the firm level. Studies by Askenazy et al (2011) and Engel et al (2013) (also based on French firm level data) further consider the role of financial indicators in exporting.…”

“…Indeed, the drop in trade during the crisis far outpaced the decline in global GDP (Alfaro and Chen (2012)). There have been various explanations for this trade collapse during the crisis, attributing it to a strong fall in demand, a rise in protectionism, a domino effect because of global value chains, or restrictions in the access to finance for exporters (e.g., Baldwin and Evenett (2009), Chor and Manova (2012) and Bricongne et al (2012)). …”