Fibrosis Predictive Score in Caucasian Patients with Metabolic Syndrome

Abstract

Introduction Many of the patients presenting with metabolic syndrome (MetS) also have liver steatosis (NAFLD) and some of them could develop liver fibrosis. Purpose To develop a simple score that could rule out fibrosis, especially significant fibrosis (F≥2) and could be used in daily practice in patients with MetS, in order to identify patients at risk. Patients and Methods A total of 204 patients with MetS were prospectively enrolled. Evaluation of liver fibrosis was made using Vibration Controlled Transient Elastography while evaluation of steatosis was achieved using ultrasound (US). Results Out of 204 patients with MetS, 179 patients (87.7%) had reliable liver stiffness measurements and 22.9% (41/179) had F ≥2. To formulate the fibrosis predicting score, all clinical variables associated with F ≥2 in the univariate analysis were considered in a multivariate regression model. According to the power of correlation, by consensus, we attributed 1 point for BMI >31.4 kg/m 2 , 1 point for female gender, 1 point for HDLc <47mg/dL, 1 point for mild steatosis at US, 1.5 point for moderate and 2 points for severe steatosis. Conclusion At an optimal cut-off value of <3.5, our score could be used to rule-out the risk for developing at least significant fibrosis with a high negative predictive value (NPV 89.2%) in patients with MetS.