Extreme climate events in China: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection

Jiang, Zhihong; Song, Jie; Li, Laurent; Chen, Weilin; Wang, Zhifu; Wang, Ji

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0090-0

Cited by 168 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(26 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

105

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…These results coincide with increased total annual precipitation, precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation projected for two catchments in eastern China in a future warming scenario (Feng et al, 2011). The increase in precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation is expected to be larger in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin than in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin (Jiang et al, 2011;Xu et al, 2011b). Warmer and wetter scenarios for the River Huangfuchuan are projected to increase river discharge substantially and, if managed properly, this could serve to alleviate current local water shortages.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China

Luo

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Understanding the heterogeneity of climate change and its impacts on annual and seasonal discharge and the difference between median flow and extreme flow in different climate regions is of utmost importance to successful water management. To quantify the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of climate change impacts on hydrological processes, this study simulated river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and in the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. The study assessed the uncertainty in projected discharge for three time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using seven equally weighted GCMs (global climate models) for the SRES (Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.Climate projections that were applied to semi-distributed hydrological models (Soil Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) in both catchments showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. Results based on seven GCMs' projections indicated changes from −1.1 to 8.6 • C and 0.3 to 7.0 • C in seasonal temperature and changes from −29 to 139 % and −32 to 85 % in seasonal precipitation in the rivers Huangfuchuan and Xiangxi, respectively. The largest increases in temperature and precipitation in both catchments were projected in the spring and winter seasons. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in the River Huangfuchuan than in the River Xiangxi. Most of the GCMs projected increased discharge in all seasons, especially in spring, although the magnitude of these increases varied between GCMs. The peak flows were projected to appear earlier than usual in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in the River Xiangxi, while the GCMs were fairly consistent in projecting increased extreme flows in both catchments with varying magnitude compared to median flows. For the River Huangfuchuan in the 2080s, median flow changed from −2 to 304 %, compared to a −1 to 145 % change in high flow (Q05 exceedance threshold). For the River Xiangxi, low flow (Q95 exceedance threshold) changed from −1 to 77 % and high flow changed from −1 to 62 %, while median flow changed from −4 to 23 %. The uncertainty analysis provided an improved understanding of future hydrologic behavior in the watershed. Furthermore, this study indicated that the uncertainty constrained by GCMs was critical and should always be considered in analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China

Luo

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Some striking features can be observed. First, compared to CMIP3 models (Jiang et al 2012;Chen et al 2011), large wet biases are still observed in CMIP5 models, with negative biases in CDD and positive biases in PRCPTOT for all models, especially over western China. Second, the relative errors of PRCPTOT and TABLE 2.…”

Section: A Regional Averages Of Indices Over the Two Regionsmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…During recent years, considerable efforts have been made to assess the ability of models in simulating extreme changes in terms of spatial and temporal changes over Chinese regions based on models from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Jiang et al (2009Jiang et al ( , 2012 showed that models have certain abilities to simulate both the spatial distribution and trend of extreme precipitation indices, but because of the limitation of coarse spatial resolution and other uncertainties, the simulation results still show many discrepancies. Xu et al (2011) showed that models had limited skills in reproducing the interannual variation of extreme precipitation events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Model Evaluation

et al. 2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

International audienceCompared to precipitation extremes calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1960–2005, simulations in 31 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been quantitatively assessed using skill-score metrics. Four extreme precipitation indices , including the total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), precipitation intensity (SDII), and fraction of total rainfall from heavy events (R95T) are analyzed. Results show that CMIP5 models still have wet biases in western and northern China. Especially in western China, the models' median relative error is about 120% for PRCPTOT; the 25th and 75th percentile errors are of 70% and 220%, respectively. However, there are dry biases in southeastern China, where the underestimation of PRCPTOT reach 200 mm. The performance of CMIP5 models is quite different between western and eastern China. The simulations are more reliable in the east than in the west in terms of spatial pattern and interannual variability. In the east, precipitation indices are more consistent with observations, and the spread among models is smaller. The multimodel ensemble constructed from a selection of the most skillful models shows improved behavior compared to the all-model ensemble. The wet bias in western and northern China and dry bias over southeastern China are all decreased. The median of errors for PRCPTOT has a decrease of 69% and 17% in the west and east, respectively. The good reproduction of the southwesterlies along the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula is revealed to be the main factor explaining the improvement of precipitation patterns and extreme events

show abstract

“…There is now mounting evidence indicating that both the frequency and intensity of regional and global extremes in temperature and moisture regimes have increased over the past few decades (Easterling et al 2000;Jiang et al 2012;Karl et al 1995;Mastrandrea et al 2011). Recent studies have demonstrated that many ecosystems are vulnerable to extreme climatic events that will likely lead to profound ecological and social impacts at local to global scales (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the impact of drought on soil-plant interactions: a seasonal analysis of biotic and abiotic controls of carbon and nutrient dynamics in high-altitudinal grasslands

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background and aims Understanding the impacts of ever more severe and widespread drought events has become a central focus of recent ecological research. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to investigate fundamental mechanisms that control drought effects on climate sensitive ecosystems by regulating soil-plant interactions.Methods Field experiments were conducted in high altitudinal grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on historical records, we simulated extreme drought events, intercepting water inputs in early (spring), mid (summer), and late (autumn) periods of the plant-growing season (PGS). We measured vegetation responses to changes in soil physical, chemical, and biological properties, examining how the interplay of abiotic and biotic processes regulate the impacts of drought above and below ground. Results Decreasing water input resulted in proportional increases in summer and autumn soil temperature, but reduced soil temperature during the spring drought. As a result, soil microbial biomass and available N and P concentrations remained stable during the early-PGS drought, while enzymatic activity, decomposition of organic materials, and nutrient release increased during the mid-and late-PGS. Concerted changes in microbial and plant activity determined seasonal fluctuations in carbon assimilation, microbial activity and nutrient dynamics, with varying degrees of resistance and resilience to drought stress observed at different PGS periods. Conclusions Significant interactions were observed between plant productivity and microbial activity in response to moisture variability and associated changes in soil temperature, with the largest deleterious drought effects registered during the summer, when competition for limiting resources between plants and microorganisms was strongest.

show abstract

Extreme climate events in China: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection

Cited by 168 publications

References 24 publications

Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China

Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China

Extreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Model Evaluation

Quantifying the impact of drought on soil-plant interactions: a seasonal analysis of biotic and abiotic controls of carbon and nutrient dynamics in high-altitudinal grasslands

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About