An open problem in biology is to understand when particular phenotypic adaptation strategies of microorganisms are selected during evolution. They range from random, bet-hedging strategies to deterministic, responsive strategies, relying on signalling circuits. We present an evolutionary model that integrates basic statistical physics of molecular circuits with fitness maximisation and information theory. Besides illustrating when bet-hedging strategies are more evolutionarily successful than responsive strategies, it gives new explanations for several puzzling observations on responsive strategies. For instance, the accuracy with which outputs of signalling networks of single cells track external signals can be remarkably low: cells often distinguish only between 2 to 4 concentration ranges, corresponding to 1 or 2 bits of mutual information between the signal and response variable. Why did evolution lead to such low-fidelity signalling systems? Our theory offers an explanation by taking a novel perspective. It considers the fitness benefit of all signals, including those that are not sensed. We introduce a new concept, 'latent information', which captures the mutual information between all nonsensed signals and the optimal response. The theory predicts that it is often evolutionarily optimal to transduce sensed signals noisily, due to latent information. It indicates that fitness can indeed be maximal when the optimal mutual information extracted from sensed signals is not maximal, but rather has a low value of about 1 or 2 bits -even at moderate values of the latent information -in agreement with experimental findings. Cells likely do not sense all signals because of the fitness cost of expressing many idle signalling systems, which consume limited biosynthetic resources otherwise available for growth. Signals should only be sensed at maximal precision when they contain all information about the optimal response. This work contributes to
PreprintOctober 9, 2019 a better understanding of the fitness contributions of phenotypic adaptation strategies of microorganisms.