Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency and the severity of extreme events in river basins around the world. Efforts to build resilience to these impacts are complicated by the social–ecological interactions, cross-scale feedbacks, and diverse actor interests that influence the dynamics of change in social–ecological systems (SESs). In this study, we aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. To do so, we facilitated a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process structured by the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consistent narrative scenarios from a network of interacting drivers of change. Thus, we also aimed to explore the potential for the CIB method to surface diverse perspectives and drivers of change in SESs. We situated this process in the Red River Basin, a transboundary basin shared by the United States and Canada where significant natural climatic variability is worsened by climate change. The process generated 15 interacting drivers ranging from agricultural markets to ecological integrity, generating eight consistent scenarios that are robust to model uncertainty. The scenario analysis and the debrief workshop reveal important insights, including the transformative changes required to achieve desirable outcomes and the cornerstone role of Indigenous water rights. In sum, our analysis surfaced significant complexities surrounding efforts to build resilience and affirmed the potential for the CIB method to generate unique insights about the trajectory of SESs.

Operationalizing ambiguity in sustainability science: embracing the elephant in the room

“…As a transdisciplinary researcher familiar with SES theory, I aimed to apply my knowledge to the design and implementation of a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process in the Red River Basin (a transboundary basin shared by the US and Canada). Through discussions with case study partners, the study aimed to co-develop exploratory scenarios that characterize future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience to climate change and a complex, cross-scale SES (Lazurko et al 2023 ). I chose critical realism as the philosophical perspective for the scenario process, which allowed me to synthesize scientific and local/practitioner knowledge in one scenario model.…”

Reflexivity as a transformative capacity for sustainability science: Introducing a critical systems approach

“…The case study is a transdisciplinary scenario modelling process led by the lead author in the Red River Basin (RRB) (Lazurko et al 2023). The RRB is an agriculturally important transboundary river basin shared by the United States and Canada where significant natural climatic variability is expected to worsen due to climate change.…”

The Water Resilience Index: A New, Flexible Tool to Comprehensively Monitor Sustainable Development Performance of Water Resource and Environmental System

“…With the intensification of climate change and human activities, extreme climate events are becoming increasingly frequent, bringing great pressure to human normal life (Lazurko et al, 2023).…”