Exploration of the health risk-based definition for heatwave: A multi-city study

Tong, Shilu; FitzGerald, Gerry; Wang, Xiao Yu; Aitken, Peter; Tippett, Vivienne; Chen, Dong; Wang, Xiaoming; Lee, Hyewon

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2015.09.009

Cited by 68 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In all cities, the strength of this association (r 2 ) increases with increasing TA Thres . This is generally comparable with results from other investigations that show greater impact on mortality for more intense HWE (e.g., Anderson and Bell, 2011;Tong et al, 2015).…”

Section: Relationship Between Ta Mag and Mortality Ratessupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Throughout involved cities, an increase of r 2 was obtained around the 95th percentile of each city-specific TA distribution. This is also reported by the multi-city risk evaluation of various heat wave definitions for Australian cities (Tong et al, 2015).…”

Section: Relationship Between Ta Mag and Mortality Ratessupporting

confidence: 61%

“…Studies which investigate regional differences in the relation between HWE and ozone concentrations revealed differences in the air-temperature-ozone relationship (e.g., Shen et al, 2016;Schnell and Prather, 2017;Phalitnonkiat et al, 2018) and in terms of their individual and combined effects on mortality (Filleul et al, 2006;Burkart et al, 2013;Analitis et al, 2014;Breitner et al, 2014;Tong et al, 2015;Analitis et al, 2018;Scortichini et al, 2018). Some studies report a North-South gradient in the air-temperature-mortality relationship, indicating that populations of northern regions are more sensitive to heat compared to southern regions, which are more affected by cold (e.g., Burkart et al, 2013;Scortichini et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The contribution of air temperature and ozone to mortality rates during hot weather episodes in eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017

Krug¹,

Fenner²,

Mücke³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Hot weather episodes are globally associated with increased mortality. Elevated ozone concentrations occurring simultaneously contribute to mortality during these episodes, yet to what extent both stressors are linked to increased mortality rates varies from region to region. This study analyzes time series of observational data of air temperature and ozone concentrations for eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017. By using an event-based risk approach, various air temperature thresholds were explored for each city to detect hot weather episodes which are statistically associated with increased mortality. Multiple linear regressions were calculated to investigate the relative contribution of air temperature and ozone concentrations to mortality rates during these episodes, including their interaction. Results were compared for their similarities and differences among the investigated cities. In all investigated cities hot weather episodes, linked to increased mortality rates, were detected. Results of the multiple linear regression further point towards air temperature as the major stressor explaining mortality rates during these episodes by up to 60 %, and ozone concentrations by up to 20 %. The strength of this association both for air temperature and ozone varies across the investigated cities. An interactive influence was found between both stressors, underlining their close relationship. For some cities, this interactive relationship explained more of the observed variance in mortality rates than each individual stressor alone. We could show that during hot weather episodes, not only air temperature affects urban populations. Concurrently high ozone concentrations also play an important role for public health in German cities.

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Section: Relationship Between Ta Mag and Mortality Ratessupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Relationship Between Ta Mag and Mortality Ratessupporting

confidence: 61%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The contribution of air temperature and ozone to mortality rates during hot weather episodes in eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017

Krug¹,

Fenner²,

Mücke³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…The climatic changes are expected to adversely influence the economy, ecosystems, and humans that are exposed to it [Watts et al, 2015;Revi et al, 2014;Seto et al, 2012]. Heat waves particularly result in excessive mortality rates [Mora et al, 2017;Mazdiyasni et al, 2017;Mitchell et al, 2016;Green et al, 2016;Cox et al, 2016;Xu et al, 2016;Tong et al, 2015;Huang et al, 2012], higher hospital admissions [Linares et al, 2017;Iñiguez et al, 2016;Díaz et al, 2015], preterm delivery [Cox et al, 2016], economic and labor productivity loss [Estrada et al, 2017;Zander et al, 2015], damage to infrastructure, and higher energy usage [Revi et al, 2014]. The total death toll by extreme temperatures hitting Europe in Summer 2003 and the Russian Federation in Summer 2010 makes heat waves the second deadliest kind of disaster related to weather extremes during the period 2001 to 2010 [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2014].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas: A study for a densely populated midlatitude maritime region

Wouters

Ridder

Poelmans

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

151

106

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Urban areas are usually warmer than their surrounding natural areas, an effect known as the urban heat island effect. As such, they are particularly vulnerable to global warming and associated increases in extreme temperatures. Yet ensemble climate‐model projections are generally performed on a scale that is too coarse to represent the evolution of temperatures in cities. Here, for the first time, we combine unprecedented long‐term (35 years) urban climate model integrations at the convection‐permitting scale (2.8 km resolution) with information from an ensemble of general circulation models to assess temperature‐based heat stress for Belgium, a densely populated midlatitude maritime region. We discover that the heat stress increase toward the mid‐21st century is twice as large in cities compared to their surrounding rural areas. The exacerbation is driven by the urban heat island itself, its concurrence with heat waves, and urban expansion. Cities experience a heat stress multiplication by a factor 1.4 and 15 depending on the scenario. Remarkably, the future heat stress surpasses everywhere the urban hot spots of today. Our results demonstrate the need to combine information from climate models, acting on different scales, for climate change risk assessment in heterogeneous regions. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for adaptation to increasing heat stress, especially in urban areas.

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“…There is no standard definition for heat waves [ 10 , 11 ], and therefore, heat wave definitions (HWs) vary in the metrics and threshold of the temperature and in the duration. Recent studies have indicated that the variety of available HWs has led to a substantial divergence in the evaluation of health risk, giving rise to confusion when selecting an appropriate definition for its application in an intervention study [ 12 , 13 ]. Therefore, to identify the most appropriate definition for heat wave warning systems, further research is needed to use various definitions for heat waves and data over a long duration to determine the impact of heat waves on mortality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Heat Wave Definitions on the Added Effect of Heat Waves on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China

Dong

Zeng

et al. 2016

IJERPH

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Heat waves are associated with increased mortality, however, few studies have examined the added effect of heat waves. Moreover, there is limited evidence for the influence of different heat wave definitions (HWs) on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, the capital of China. The aim of this study was to find the best HW definitions for cardiovascular mortality, and we examined the effect modification by an individual characteristic on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, a typical northern city in China. We applied a Poisson generalized additive approach to estimate the differences in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves (using 12 HWs) compared with non-heat-wave days in Beijing from 2006 to 2009. We also validated the model fit by checking the residuals to ensure that the autocorrelation was successfully removed. In addition, the effect modifications by individual characteristics were explored in different HWs. Our results showed that the associations between heat waves and cardiovascular mortality differed from different HWs. HWs using the 93th percentile of the daily average temperature (27.7 °C) and a duration ≥5 days had the greatest risk, with an increase of 18% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6%, 31%) in the overall population, 24% (95% CI: 10%, 39%) in an older group (ages ≥65 years), and 22% (95% CI: 3%, 44%) in a female group. The added effect of heat waves was apparent after 5 consecutive heat wave days for the overall population and the older group. Females and the elderly were at higher risk than males and younger subjects (ages <65 years). Our findings suggest that heat wave definitions play a significant role in the relationship between heat wave and cardiovascular mortality. Using a suitable definition may have implications for designing local heat early warning systems and protecting the susceptible populations during heat waves.

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Exploration of the health risk-based definition for heatwave: A multi-city study

Cited by 68 publications

References 22 publications

The contribution of air temperature and ozone to mortality rates during hot weather episodes in eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017

The contribution of air temperature and ozone to mortality rates during hot weather episodes in eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017

Heat stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas: A study for a densely populated midlatitude maritime region

Impact of Heat Wave Definitions on the Added Effect of Heat Waves on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China

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