Expected Benefits of Laos’ Hydropower Development Curbed by Hydroclimatic Variability and Limited Transmission Capacity: Opportunities to Reform

Chowdhury, Afm Kamal; Dang, Thanh Duc; Bagchi, Arijit; Galelli, Stefano

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001279

Cited by 32 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The dynamic behavior of the Laotian‐Thai power grid is simulated with PowNet (Chowdhury, Kern, et al., 2020). Similarly to other production cost models (e.g., PROMOD (ABB, 2020), PyPSA (Brown et al., 2018), CAPOW (Su, Kern, Denaro, et al., 2020)), PowNet simulates the decision‐making problem of determining (1) which generating units to start‐up and shutdown (Unit Commitment) and (2) the amount of power supplied by each unit (Economic Dispatch).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The hourly electricity demand at each substation is estimated starting from province‐wise, monthly varied peak electricity demand, collected from EPPO (2017). Both spatial and temporal disaggregation rely on a common approach in power system modeling (see Chowdhury, Kern, et al., 2020, and references therein). The former depends on the voltage level of the substations, the latter is based on weekday‐weekend and peak‐off‐peak demand profiles to account for the variation among days in a week and hours in a day.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions

et al. 2021

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The Greater Mekong Subregion is a transnational area bound together by the Mekong River basin and its immense hydropower resources, historically seen as the backbone of regional economic development. The basin is now punctuated by several dams, successful in attracting both international investors and fierce criticisms for their environmental and societal impacts. Surprisingly, no attention has been paid so far to the actual performance of these infrastructures: is hydropower supply robust with respect to the hydroclimatic variability characterizing Southeast Asia? When water availability is altered, what are the implications for power production costs and CO2 emissions? To answer these questions, we focus on the Laotian–Thai grid—the first international power‐trade infrastructure developed in the region—and use a power system model driven by a spatially distributed hydrological‐water management model. Simulation results over a 30‐year period show that production costs and carbon footprint are significantly affected by droughts, which reduce hydropower availability and increase reliance on thermoelectric resources. Regional droughts across the Mekong basin are of particular concern, as they reduce the export of cheap hydropower from Laos to Thailand. To put the analysis into a broader climate‐water‐energy context, we show that the El Niño Southern Oscillation modulates not only the summer monsoon, but also the power system behavior, shaping the relationship between hydroclimatological conditions, power production costs, and CO2 emissions. Overall, our results and models provide a knowledge basis for informing robust management strategies at the water‐energy scale and designing more sustainable power plans in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions

et al. 2021

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“…For example, Thailand is increasingly purchasing Mekong‐generated hydropower from Laos, and when that is insufficient, complements its energy needs with thermal power from plants that use water from the Chao Phraya for cooling. Thailand's energy system is more vulnerable when a prolonged drought occurs at both rivers (Chowdhury et al., 2020)—our record shows such events have happened several times in the past.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…Thailand's energy system is more vulnerable when a prolonged drought occurs at both rivers (Chowdhury et al, 2020)-our record shows such events have happened several times in the past.…”

Section: 1029/2020wr027883mentioning

confidence: 89%

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

Nguyen

Turner

Buckley

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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The Monsoon Asia region is home to ten of the world's biggest rivers, supporting the lives of 1.7 billion people who rely on streamflow for water, energy, and food. Yet a synthesized understanding of multicentennial streamflow variability for this region is lacking. To fill this gap, we produce the first large scale streamflow reconstruction over Monsoon Asia (62 stations in 16 countries, 813 years of mean annual flow). In making this reconstruction, we develop a novel, automated, climate-informed, and dynamic reconstruction framework that is skillful over most of the region. We show that streamflow in Monsoon Asia is spatially coherent, owing to common drivers from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. We also show how these oceanic teleconnections change over space and time. By characterizing past and present hydroclimatic variability, we provide a platform for assessing the impact of future climatic changes and informing water management decisions. Plain Language Summary Ten of the world's biggest rivers are located entirely within the Asian Monsoon region. They provide water, energy, and food for 1.7 billion people. To manage these critical resources, we need a better understanding of river discharge-how does it change over a long time? Are there common variation patterns among rivers? To answer these questions, we use information derived from tree rings to reconstruct average annual river discharge history at 62 gauges in 16 Asian countries. Our reconstruction reveals the riparian footprint of megadroughts and large volcanic eruptions over the past eight centuries. We show that simultaneous droughts and pluvials have often occurred at adjacent river basins in the past, because Asian rivers share common influences from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. We also show how these oceanic teleconnections change over space and time. Our findings can inform big decisions made on water-dependent infrastructure, thus benefiting the riparian people of the Asian Monsoon region.

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“…In Lao PDR, hydropower production costs 20% more than anticipated during dry periods when thermal power is required to meet energy demand. During wet years, limited transmission line capacity results in unused hydropower [76]. As mentioned above, including costs of lost capture fisheries, sediment transport, and nutrients in the cost-benefit analysis for LMB dams resulted in a projected total economic impact that was negative USD 7.3 billion [11], whereas BDP2 estimated a positive economic impact of USD 33.4 billion without fully quantifying the environmental costs [33].…”

Section: History and Future Of Tradeoff Analyses In Dam Planning And Operationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Meta-Analysis of Environmental Tradeoffs of Hydropower Dams in the Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) Rivers of the Lower Mekong Basin

Null

Farshid

Goodrum

et al. 2020

Water

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In Mekong riparian countries, hydropower development provides energy, but also threatens biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and an unparalleled freshwater fishery. The Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok Rivers (3S Basin) are major tributaries to the Lower Mekong River (LMB), making up 10% of the Mekong watershed but supporting nearly 40% of the fish species of the LMB. Forty-five dams have been built, are under construction, or are planned in the 3S Basin. We completed a meta-analysis of aquatic and riparian environmental losses from current, planned, and proposed hydropower dams in the 3S and LMB using 46 papers and reports from the past three decades. Proposed mainstem Stung Treng and Sambor dams were not included in our analysis because Cambodia recently announced a moratorium on mainstem Mekong River dams. More than 50% of studies evaluated hydrologic change from dam development, 33% quantified sediment alteration, and 30% estimated fish production changes. Freshwater fish diversity, non-fish species, primary production, trophic ecology, and nutrient loading objectives were less commonly studied. We visualized human and environmental tradeoffs of 3S dams from the reviewed papers. Overall, Lower Sesan 2, the proposed Sekong Dam, and planned Lower Srepok 3A and Lower Sesan 3 have considerable environmental impacts. Tradeoff analyses should include environmental objectives by representing organisms, habitats, and ecosystems to quantify environmental costs of dam development and maintain the biodiversity and extraordinary freshwater fishery of the LMB.

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Expected Benefits of Laos’ Hydropower Development Curbed by Hydroclimatic Variability and Limited Transmission Capacity: Opportunities to Reform

Cited by 32 publications

References 48 publications

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

A Meta-Analysis of Environmental Tradeoffs of Hydropower Dams in the Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) Rivers of the Lower Mekong Basin

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Expected Benefits of Laos’ Hydropower Development Curbed by Hydroclimatic Variability and Limited Transmission Capacity: Opportunities to Reform

Cited by 32 publications

References 48 publications

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

A Meta-Analysis of Environmental Tradeoffs of Hydropower Dams in the Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) Rivers of the Lower Mekong Basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

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The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions