Evaluation of CMIP6 GCM rainfall in mainland Southeast Asia

Iqbal, Zafar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ahmed, Kamal; Ismail, Tarmizi; Ziarh, Ghaith Falah; Chung, Eun‐Sung; Wang, Xiaojun

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105525

Cited by 113 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…In 2010, CMIP Phase 5 was initiated and its GCM ensemble consisted of 40 GCMs. Currently, the latest CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) launched in 2013 includes the output of 55 GCMs [7,8]. A major difference between CMIP6 and CMIP5 is the scenario of GHG emissions for future anthropogenic forcing of climate change, where CMIP5 projections are simulated based the radiative forcing pathways (RCPs) [9], while the recent CMIP6 applies socio-economic pathways (SSPs) [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The significance of HighResMIP is that it allows investigation of the sensitivities of present-day climate representation and future climate projection solely to changes in GCM resolution. The CMIP6 GCMs have been extensively used to evaluate climate extremes such as precipitation, temperature and drought [8,12,13]. To date, the use of the CMIP6 in hydrological studies is relatively rare, but such outputs are likely to increase dramatically in the near future [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

Tan

Liang

Hawcroft

et al. 2021

Water

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High resolution models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), part of CMIP6, have the capacity to allow a better representation of the climate system in tropical regions, but how different model resolutions affect hydrological outputs remains unclear. This research aims to evaluate projections of hydro-climatic change of the Johor River Basin (JRB) in southern Peninsular Malaysia between 1985 to 2015 and 2021 to 2050, focusing on uncertainty quantification of hydrological outputs from low (>1°), medium (0.5° to 1°) and high (≤0.5°) horizontal resolution models. These projections show future increases in annual precipitation of 0.4 to 3.1%, minimum and maximum temperature increases of 0.8 to 0.9 °C and 0.9 to 1.1 °C, respectively. These projected climate changes lead to increases in annual mean streamflow of 0.9% to 7.0% and surface runoff of 7.0% to 20.6% in the JRB. These annual mean changes are consistent with those during the wet period (November to December), e.g., streamflow increases of 4.9% to 10.8% and surface runoff of 28.8 to 39.9% in December. Disagreement in the direction of change is found during the dry seasons, (February to March and May to September), where high resolution models project a decrease in future monthly precipitation and streamflow, whilst increases are projected by the medium- and low-resolution models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

Tan

Liang

Hawcroft

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Chen et al (2020) compared the ability of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models to simulate the global extreme climates, and found that the simulated results of CMIP6 models were usually closer to the observations than that of the CMIP5 for most regions, especially for temperature simulations. Iqbal et al (2021) evaluated the precipitation simulation capability of 35 GCMs in the CMIP6 in Southeast Asia, and the results indicated that most GCMs could well simulate the precipitation change in the region. Khan et al (2021) used Bayesian models to averagely evaluate the applicability of the 13 GCMs in the CMIP5 over the Indus River Basin, and the results showed that the optimal models for simulating temperature and precipitation were not consistent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Ability of CMIP6 Global Climate Models to Simulate Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, China

et al. 2021

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Choosing an appropriate GCM (Global Climate Model, GCM) is of great significance for the simulation of the hydrological cycle over a basin under future climate scenarios. In this study, the Rank Score Method (RS) with eight indicators were applied to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of 19 GCMs issued in the Sixth Global Atmosphere and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The results indicated that: 1) The GCMs perform differently in simulating precipitation over the YRB with the top six GCMs ranking from MRI-ESM2-0, ACCESS-CM2, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, FGOALS-f3-L, to MPI-ESM1-2-HR. 2) Most GCMs overestimated the precipitation, and poorly simulated the phase distribution of extremes mainly due to overstimulation of wet season span and precipitation amount in the season, although all GCMs could capture decadal feature of annual precipitation. Meanwhile, it is also found that most GCMs underestimated summer precipitation and overestimated spring precipitation. 3) The GCMs well simulated the spatial distribution of annual precipitation, with an overestimation in the source area, and an underestimation in the northern part of the middle reaches of YRB.

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“…CMIP6 emphasizes coordinated experiments to better understand the mechanisms that produce climate variability. Therefore, CMIP6 GCMs are supposed to reduce the model biases more than the earlier version (Iqbal et al 2021;Song et al 2021b). Therefore, it is important to conduct a study to assess the relative changes in climate projection between CMIP5 and CMIP6.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intercomparison of Historical Simulation and Future Projection of Rainfall and Temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs Over Egypt

Hamed¹,

Nashwan²,

Shahid

2021

Preprint

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The performances of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) of recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) compared to its predecessor, CMIP5 are evaluated to anticipate the expected changes in climate over Egypt, globally one of the most environmentally fragile countries due to water insecurity and climate change. Thirteen common GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) of both CMIPs were used for this purpose. The future projections were compared for two radiative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and 5-8.5) scenarios. The results revealed improvement in most CMIP6 models in replicating historical rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) climatology over Egypt. The MME of the CMIPs revealed that both could reproduce the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of climate in Egypt. However, the bias in CMIP6 is much less than that for CMIP5. The uncertainty in simulating seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature was lower for CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. The future projection of rainfall using CMIP6 MME revealed a higher reduction of precipitation (4 to 10 mm) in the economically crucial northern region compared to that estimated using CMIP5 (10 to >15 mm). CMIP6 also projected a 1.5 to 2.5ºC more rise in Tmax and Tmin compared to CMIP5. The study indicates more aggravated scenarios of climate changes in Egypt than anticipated earlier, using the CMIP5 model. Therefore, Egypt needs to streamline the existing adaptation measures formulated based on CMIP5 projections.

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Evaluation of CMIP6 GCM rainfall in mainland Southeast Asia

Cited by 113 publications

References 55 publications

Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

Evaluation of the Ability of CMIP6 Global Climate Models to Simulate Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, China

Intercomparison of Historical Simulation and Future Projection of Rainfall and Temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs Over Egypt

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