Evaluation of Agricultural Water Pricing in an Irrigation District Based on a Bayesian Network

Abstract

In recent years, the large-scale development of land and water resources has led to a conflict between water supply and demand. Especially in arid regions, fragile ecosystems and continuous farmland expansion have threatened the ecological and social security of river basins. Therefore, it is urgent to propose scientific and reasonable water resource management models to alleviate this conflict. Based on the principle of "the strictest water resource management measures" for river basin water resources, this study has taken Heshuo County, Xinjiang as the research object, using a full-cost method to determine agricultural water prices for the irrigation district at 0.35 RMB/m 3 and 1.4 RMB/m 3. With the participation of stakeholders and experts, current water rights trading and management systems were analyzed by a Bayesian network (BN) model. In addition, the impact of water-pricing policy on farmers' planting behavior was also quantified. The results indicated that an increase in water prices can effectively reduce agricultural water consumption for irrigation, but it would also induce negative externalities involving groundwater (GW) preservation and farmers' income. A water resource management model mainly directed by water-pricing policy, and supplemented by GW protection and agricultural subsidy policies, could effectively regulate farmers' water-use behavior, guarantee farmers' income, and protect GW. This study provides a successful management approach for coordinating the relationship between agricultural water resources and the ecological environment in an arid basin watershed and promoting the efficient use of agricultural water resources in irrigated areas.

Cost–benefit analysis of China's farming system

“…In addition, they may allow harvesting of two crops per year, leading to higher benefits than in other areas, largely due to the increased VP (Johnson et al., 2017). Costs also show high geographical variation; for example, the water opportunity costs tend to be high in areas with insufficient water, such as China's arid and semi‐arid northern areas (Zhu et al., 2018). For example, Tianjin is a coastal city, with a relatively mild climate and lower ecological protection costs, and it is possible to grow two crops annually.…”

Insights from a Calibrated Optimization Model for Irrigated Agriculture under Drought in an Irrigation District on the Central Mexican High Plains

“…Other authors have proved the demand price elasticity as a serious limitation; Exposito and Berbel [74] concluded that water pricing policy loses effectiveness in areas characterized by water scarcity and supply restrictions, as overexploited aquifers. Although success pricing policy cases exists, Rogers et al [75] commented that integrated pricing from all sources should exist and be supplemented by other policies and indicators (environmental and social), discussed by other studies [16,54]. Providing a price for water would make the opportunity cost of water explicit to farmers, which could lead them to changes in selecting crops, and could incentivize the participation in the water market during drought.…”

“…Modeling methods, either inductive or deductive [13], have proven to be a useful tool for estimating the economic value of water and its demand for irrigation use, as indicated by Tsur [14], as well as for assessing water allocation policies [15]. The use of inductive techniques including statistical methods, e.g., econometrics, applied for irrigation water value and water derived demand in agriculture, have been used in different countries, with insights for water policy applications, as can be seen in Zhu et al, Mesa-Jurado et al, and Sun et al [16][17][18].…”

The Enhanced Management of Water Resources Improves Ecosystem Services in a Typical Arid Basin

“…The refore, a reasonable proportion of the oasis scale (i.e., 5:5-6) is beneficial in order to control agricultural water use, and to enhance the regulating ecosystem service (CAS) of natural vegetation [84]. Moreover, the application of a Bayesian network model in arid basins could promote the reduction of farmland and irrigation water by adjusting the water price, in order to ensure the scale and area of oasis areas, and to improve habitat function [85]. Through water-saving and water-retaining engineering measures, according to the actual needs of crop irrigation, the use of water-saving irrigation technology can reduce ET and other invalid losses in the process of water transfer, improve the efficiency of utilization of water resources in farmland, and promote the water cycle of the basin [50,82,83,86].…”