2020
DOI: 10.1002/met.1959
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Abstract: Reliable information on the likelihood of drought is of crucial importance in agricultural planning and humanitarian decision-making. Acting based upon probabilistic forecasts of drought, rather than responding to prevailing drought conditions, has the potential to save lives, livelihoods and resources, but is accompanied by the risk of acting in vain. The suitability of a novel forecasting

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Cited by 17 publications
(14 citation statements)
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References 46 publications
(64 reference statements)
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“…Seasonal WRSI criterion: Probability that the WRSI exceeds a predefined fraction of the climatological maximum achievable WRSI is greater than a predefined value. The WRSI is calculated climatologically rather than predicted using the TAMSAT-ALERT approach because previous studies indicate that the predictability of interannual variability in WRSI on seasonal time scales is far lower than the short time scale predictability of the upper-level soil moisture (Brown et al, 2017;Boult et al, 2020). The WRSI probability criteria are fixed to 0.75 of maximum WRSI with a probability threshold of 0.5.…”
Section: Conceptual Overview Of the Dstmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Seasonal WRSI criterion: Probability that the WRSI exceeds a predefined fraction of the climatological maximum achievable WRSI is greater than a predefined value. The WRSI is calculated climatologically rather than predicted using the TAMSAT-ALERT approach because previous studies indicate that the predictability of interannual variability in WRSI on seasonal time scales is far lower than the short time scale predictability of the upper-level soil moisture (Brown et al, 2017;Boult et al, 2020). The WRSI probability criteria are fixed to 0.75 of maximum WRSI with a probability threshold of 0.5.…”
Section: Conceptual Overview Of the Dstmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The soil moisture forecasting model adopts the established TAMSAT-ALERT ensemble forecasting framework (Brown et al, 2017;Asfaw et al, 2018;Boult et al, 2020). TAMSAT-ALERT is a computationally light-weight system that accounts for the local historical climatology and recent variation in weather (rainfall, temperature, shortwave and longwave radiation, humidity, wind speed and pressure), local variation in soil texture and optionally the precipitation forecast.…”
Section: Figurementioning
confidence: 99%
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“…The scenario-based forecast (WRSI Outlook) follows the same schema as that utilized in the Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Measurements-Agricultural Early Warning System (TAMSAT-ALERT) (Asfaw et al 2018;Brown et al 2017), which has been shown to be well correlated with observed WRSI (correlation coefficient r . 0.8) in Kenya (Boult et al 2020). However, Boult et al (2020) uses spatially averaged 1 FEWS NET partners and implementers include the U.S. Agency for International Development's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID BHA), U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resource Observation and Science Center (USGS/EROS Center), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Chemonics International, the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM), Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW), and the Climate Hazards Center (CHC).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 95%
“…0.8) in Kenya (Boult et al 2020). However, Boult et al (2020) uses spatially averaged 1 FEWS NET partners and implementers include the U.S. Agency for International Development's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID BHA), U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resource Observation and Science Center (USGS/EROS Center), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Chemonics International, the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM), Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW), and the Climate Hazards Center (CHC).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 95%