Evaluation and analysis of the projected population of China

Abstract

The population has a significant influence on economic growth, energy consumption, and climate change. Many scholars and organizations have published projections for China's future population due to its substantial population amounts. However, these projections have not been evaluated or analyzed, which may lead confusion to extensional studies based on these datasets. This manuscript compares several China's projection datasets at multiscale and analyzes the impacting factors affecting projection accuracy. The results indicate that the slow of actual population growth rates from 2017 is earlier than most datasets projected. Therefore, the turning point of population decline probably comes rapidly before these datasets expected during 2024 and 2034. Furthermore, the projections do not reveal the population decline from 2010 in the Northeast provinces such as Jilin and Heilongjiang, and underrate the population increase in the southern provinces such as Guangdong and Chongqing. According to the results of regression models, the rate of population changes and the number of migrations people play a significant role in projection accuracy. These findings provide meaningful guidance for scholars to understand the uncertainty of those projection datasets. Moreover, for researchers performing population projections, our discoveries provide insights to increase the projection accuracy.

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