Evaluating Risk and Possible Adaptations to Climate Change Under a Socio-Ecological System Approach

Abstract

Evidence suggests that climate change could drastically reduce Mexico's agricultural productivity with severe socio-ecological consequences. Population growth and the increasing demand of resources will exacerbate these impacts. Focusing on rainfed maize production, we evaluate the socio-ecological risk that municipalities currently face and how climate change could modify it. Municipalities were classified based on their biophysical and socioeconomic traits like temperature, precipitation, population, gross domestic product, marginalization, and agricultural subsidies. The study identifies municipalities that would face higher risk under climate change conditions, and it evaluates whether increases in agricultural subsidies could be effective for reducing the farmers' future risk. Our results show that during the 2010's, 36.8% of the municipalities and 15% of the population were at very high and high risk, respectively. By 2070, under a high-warming scenario these figures increase to 56.5 and 18.5%. We find that a generalized augment in agricultural subsidies is not enough to compensate for the effects of climate change on the socio-ecological risk of rainfed maize producers. We suggest that transformative adaptation is required for managing the agricultural risk that socio-ecological systems experience under climate change conditions. Such adaptation strategies should include poverty alleviation, promotion of resistant and native varieties of crops, capacity building to improve management and water use, sustainable technification, and soil restoration.

Impacts and economic costs of climate change on Mexican agriculture

“…Support and investment of many poor regions with rainfed agriculture in the south of the country would allow improving production. Moreover, the use of fertilizers as a national strategy is not enough nor sustainable to tackle the impacts of climate change in Mexico (Buechler 2009;Haro et al 2021). These strategies should integrate the migration of crops and varieties under future conditions (Sloat et al 2020) and impacts that these new conditions have on landuse changes (Ritchie et al 2020).…”

Barriers and bridges on water management in rural Mexico: from water-quality monitoring to water management at the community level

“…“Global change, and in particular climate change, pose considerable challenges to water management and governance” (Pahl-Wostl & Kranz, 2010 ). Uncertainty about rainfall and temperature enhances existing challenges or creates new ones that communities confront concerning water management (Haro et al, 2021 ; Pahl-Wostl et al, 2010 ). In these communities, the uncertainty about the rainy season represents a barrier whose implications affect decision-making about the irrigation of domestic crops and the proper use of water sources.…”

Amenazas al paisaje agrícola tradicional del sur de Yucatán, México: una mirada desde el análisis socioecológico

“…En los dos municipios de estudio, el cultivo y la producción de maíz de temporal constituye una importante fuente de alimento, sin embargo, en la zona sur de Yucatán, además de proyectarse una reducción en la precipitación, se espera que los factores socioeconómicos como la pobreza y marginación aumenten las condiciones de vulnerabilidad de las familias productoras de maíz (Haro et al, 2021).…”