Evaluating biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) in California: A GIS based supply–demand demographic model

Gutiérrez, A. P.; Pitcairn, Michael J.; Ellis, C.K.; Carruthers, N.; Ghezelbash, Reza

doi:10.1016/j.biocontrol.2005.04.015

Cited by 46 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…16) and predict the geographic distribution and relative abundance of species across time and space independent of species distribution records using extant and climate change weather scenarios as drivers for the system. The explicit assumptions in PBDMs have heuristic…”

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confidence: 99%

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

Ponti

Gutiérrez

Ruti

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

142

110

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The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.ecological impacts | economic impacts | species interactions | Olea europaea | desertification

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confidence: 99%

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

Ponti

Gutiérrez

Ruti

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

142

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Hughes & Gilbert 1968, Gilbert & Gutierrez 1973, and the use of physiologically based models has further simplifi es the problem (e.g. Gutierrez & Wang 1977, Gutierrez & Baumgärtner 1984, Gurney et al 1996, Gutierrez 1996, Holst et al 1997, Gutierrez et al 2005. Physiologically based demographic models describe basic biological processes of per capita poikilotherm growth and reproduction as driven by weather and as modifi ed by resource density and competition (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Integrating weather driven models in a GIS provides an excellent way to visualize the data, but an analysis of the simulation data was required to explore subtle biological interactions (e.g. Gutierrez et al 2005). Such physiologically based models are becoming important components in analyses of the effects of climate change on biological systems (Gutierrez et al 2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach has been used successfully with fi eld and simulation data ( (Neuenschwander et al 1989, Gutierrez et al 2005. Here, log cumulative daily oleander scale densities (i.e.…”

Section: Regional Gis Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The mathematics and assumptions of the critical components of the model are outlined below and in GutierrezBaumgärtner (1984), Gutierrez (1996) and more recently Gutierrez et al (2005).…”

Section: The Dynamics Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A regional analysis of weather mediated competition between a parasitoid and a coccinellid predator of oleander scale

Gutiérrez¹,

Pizzamiglio²

2007

Neotrop. Entomol.

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Análise Regional da Competição Mediada por Fatores Climáticos entre um Parasitóide e um CoccinelídeoPredador da Cochonilha-da-Espirradeira na Califórnia and a coccinellid predator (Rhysobius lophanthae (Blaisd.) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), was examined using a general weather-driven, tri-trophic, physiologically based age-mass structured demographic model. The model is of intermediate complexity and was parameterized using extensive laboratory data and fi eld observations from Albany, CA. Temperature-dependent physiological indices were estimated from the laboratory data and used to scale per capita growth, fecundity and survivorship rates from maximal values in a time varying environment. The tri-trophic model was integrated in a GIS (geographic information system) and the species dynamics examined across years and across the ecological zones of California. Field data and simulation results suggested the coccinellid predator was the most important regulating agent of oleander scale in the mild climate of Albany. However, multiple linear regression analysis of simulation data across all ecological zones of California shows that the parasitoid A. chilensis is the most important agent in suppressing oleander scale densities in warmer climates, while the predator R. lophanthae increases scale density an average of 9.7% across all regions.

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Asteraceae Martinov

and¹,

Tyrl²

2012

Toxic Plants of North America

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Evaluating biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) in California: A GIS based supply–demand demographic model

Cited by 46 publications

References 27 publications

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

A regional analysis of weather mediated competition between a parasitoid and a coccinellid predator of oleander scale

Asteraceae Martinov

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