Evaluación de la conversión a café orgánico usando la metodología de opciones reales

Real Options and Productive Reconversion by Low-Income Producers: The Case of Hibiscus in Guerrero, Mexico

“…The Wald test showed that the estimated model is statistically significant, and under the Ljung-Box test considering 39 lags in its calculation, a statistic with a value of 21.1 was obtained and a p-value of 0.994, so the null hypothesis was not rejected, and it was concluded that the residuals are independent (Gujarati and Porter, 2010). Through the model, the estimated value for volatility (v t ) for the first five months of 2022 was 0.1503, which is slightly lower than the estimated value for historical volatility of s = 0.1521, as well as the estimated values for other agricultural products (Ortiz-Rivera et al, 2020;Valencia-Sandoval et al, 2010;Delgado-Juárez and Pérez-Akaki, 2013;Valencia-Sandoval and Zetina-Espinosa, 2016). With interest rate values of r = 0.08, and parameters indicating that the expected income flow rises (u = 1.162) and falls (d = 0.860), the values of the risk-neutral probabilities of the binomial model were calculated.…”

“…While hibiscus is destined for commercialization, the price of this product is relevant for the producer; maize, on the other hand, is destined for family consumption and, to a lesser extent, for planting the following production cycle and commercialization (surplus) (Ariza-Flores et al, 2014). Focusing on the hibiscus crop, the price of the calyx presented a historical annual volatility of 15.21 % from 2015 to 2021, which is lower than that of other agricultural commodities (Valencia-Sandoval et al, 2010;Delgado-Juárez and Pérez-Akaki, 2013;Valencia-Sandoval and Zetina-Espinosa, 2016;Ortiz-Rivera et al, 2020). Still, the question arises as to how price volatility might impact the decisions of low-income producers who conventionally grow hibiscus in association with maize.…”