Estimating economic impacts from future energy demand changes due to climate change and economic development in China

Huang, Chengfang; Zhang, Zhengtao; Li, Ning; Yuan, Liu; Chen, Xi; Liu, Fenggui

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127576

Cited by 25 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…At the same time, the consumption habit in traditional, highly-pollutant energy resources is still evidently prevalent in non-metropolitan or rural areas [3,4], which are less likely to be completely changed in a short time. Therefore, disparities in energy consumption/supply have become much increasingly significant, which in turn result in a host of collateral issues, such as a further increased socio-economic development gap across regions [5,6]. With this mind, understanding such a contradictory interaction between socio-economic development and…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Key Factors in Determining Disparities in Energy Consumption in China: A Household Level Analysis

Yang

Zhao

et al. 2021

Energies

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With the rapid progress of socio-economic development and urbanization in China, a wide variety of literature has focused on the phenomenon of energy-consumption disparity, which in turn could be related to numerous fundamental energy dilemmas that China must deal with now or soon, including energy use inefficiency, regional energy shortage, insufficient use of green energy, etc. However, in most cases, only a tendency scenario is discussed, while identifying which factors are more likely to affect the improvement of energy supply/use has not yet been fully explored. Therefore, this paper attempts to explore differences in energy consumption in specific, household-level aspects. Based on the information provided by Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS2015), the Gini coefficient and the Lorentz asymmetry coefficient are used to measure the difference among various categories of energy type and end use within and between different geographical sub-groups. The findings show that: (1) household energy-consumption behaviors exhibit a complicated effect on the overall level of energy-consumption difference; (2) from the supply side, energy users show the most significant difference in biomass energy consumption, while from the demand side, the contribution of space heating to the difference in total energy consumption is the highest; (3) a great urban–rural difference in energy consumption is generally observed with its difference within rural areas being much greater than in urban areas; (4) the eastern, middle and western regions weight differently in explaining the overall difference of energy consumption. These findings provide meaningful materials and references for policymakers in China to understand the overall situation of individual energy consumption to a great extent, and to locate key points to reform the current energy policy framework.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Key Factors in Determining Disparities in Energy Consumption in China: A Household Level Analysis

Yang

Zhao

et al. 2021

Energies

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“…As a result, China will have to reduce its dependence on conventional energy as much as possible while continuing to increase the use of conventional energy in its pursuit of peak carbon emissions. However, previous studies have pointed out that there is a direct dependence between regional energy demand and temperature change (Berardi & Jafarpur, 2016; Hasegawa et al., 2016; van Ruijven et al., 2019) and found that China’s energy demand will increase significantly to adapt to future climate warming (Fan et al., 2019; C. Huang et al., 2021; Jiang et al., 2019a; Shi et al., 2016). Therefore, without considering the future development of clean energy and energy technology under extreme assumptions, this paper made pessimistic estimates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of the Potential Indirect Damage to China by Restricting Energy Increase to Peak Carbon Emissions

Huang

Zhang

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

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Balanced against this increase in energy demand are energy security and climate warming issues. Restricting the increase in energy demand for peaking carbon emissions will not only directly affect production in sectors but also cause a broader indirect economic impact through intricate industrial linkages. Under the two requirements of adapting to warming and peaking carbon emissions before 2030, we accordingly constructed developmental and restrictive scenarios of China and improved the adaptive Input–Output model from the demand side to evaluate the indirect economic impact. The main findings were as follows: (a) the increase in end‐use demand for conventional energy in 2030 will be 24.43% of energy consumption in 2017 (TEC2017) under the restrictive scenario, and the reduction of this increase will be about 42.98% of TEC2017 in comparison with the developmental scenario. (b) Due to this reduction, the possible indirect damage in 2030 will be 14.96% of the GDP in 2017, and the clean energy level in 2030 will be 20 times the hydropower generation in 2017, which can offset this damage. (c) The industrial sector with high output and high energy will suffer the most indirect damage. The quantitative results demonstrate the great challenges that China will face in clean energy transition.

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“…Currently, energy development in energy-rich areas has brought many benefits to local areas, such as increased investment, increased employment, and the development of extractive, transportation, and manufacturing industries. However, energy development also brings ecological impacts, resulting in the decline of groundwater levels, surface collapse, vegetation degradation, water pollution, and other problems [8]. As the conflict between human activities and the ecological environment increases, ecological compensation has become an important means to promote green and low-carbon development, promote the overall green transformation of economic and social development, and realise the harmonious coexistence between man and nature [9][10][11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Ecological Compensation on Farmers’ Livelihood Strategies in Energy Development Regions in China: A Case Study of Yulin City

Wen

Fang

et al. 2022

Land

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Ecological compensation affects farmers′ livelihoods, as well as sustainability and social equity. Yulin City is the core area of the energy “Golden Triangle” in China. The farmers livelihood strategy model was used to analyse data from a household survey and interviews with selected farmers. The paper analyses the current livelihood strategies of farmers and impact of ecological compensation from the perspective of participation and income. The results showed that: (1) the significant difference between the coal resource development and oil and gas resource development was agricultural planting. Migrant work and non-agricultural self-employment in the coal resource development region were higher than that of the oil and gas resource development region. (2) The income from agricultural planting in the coal resource development region was significantly lower than that of the oil and gas resource development region. The labour, non-agricultural self-employment, and transfer incomes were higher in the coal resource development region than that in the oil and gas resource development region. (3) Ecological compensation has a significant negative effect on participation and income from agricultural planting, as well as a positive effect on participation and income from non-agricultural self-employment. We have proposed measures to strengthen ecological compensation mechanisms and improve the farmers′ livelihoods, in order to inform decision-making and high-quality sustainable development in energy development region.

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Estimating economic impacts from future energy demand changes due to climate change and economic development in China

Cited by 25 publications

References 44 publications

Identifying Key Factors in Determining Disparities in Energy Consumption in China: A Household Level Analysis

Identifying Key Factors in Determining Disparities in Energy Consumption in China: A Household Level Analysis

Estimates of the Potential Indirect Damage to China by Restricting Energy Increase to Peak Carbon Emissions

Impact of Ecological Compensation on Farmers’ Livelihood Strategies in Energy Development Regions in China: A Case Study of Yulin City

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