Environmental change and social conflict: the northeast Atlantic mackerel dispute

Abstract

A recurrent critique of the proposition of a causal relation between environmental change and social conflict is that it fails to account for the complexities and dynamics of processes of social-ecological change. In this article, we open the black box of contextual factors that influence the causal pathway from environmental change to social conflict. Firstly, we argue for the consideration of three social factors that influence that pathway: (a) institutions, (b) power, and (c) knowledge. Taking a deductive approach, we ascertain their causal importance in the case of the "mackerel dispute," an interstate conflict that unfolded after the abrupt and rapid change in distribution of the northeast Atlantic mackerel stock after 2007. We analyze the historical development of the mackerel dispute through process tracing and demonstrate the importance and causal role of the three factors. Secondly, based on our assessment, we argue to increase the diversity of the scope conditions relevant for the environmental changesocial conflict nexus. We propose to consider a wider variety of conflicts as outcome of environmental change, highincome regions as an arena for those conflicts, and a wider variety of environmental change, such as alterations in abundance in the context of climate change. Lastly, we discuss how future research on this topic can handle the wider scope conditions and greater case variability.

The quality of compliance: investigating fishers’ responses towards regulation and authorities

“…As becomes clear in our study, as well as many others, these opportunities have been disappearing during the previous decades (Selling and Holmer 2007;Kittinger et al 2013). The economic profitability of fisheries has declined (Eggert and Tveter as 2007;Waldo et al 2013); the resilience of global fish stocks is impaired due to overfishing, climate change, pollution and eutrophication (Jackson et al 2001); fisheries regulation has increased substantially (Murray et al 2010;; and competition over marine resources has become more intense due to conflicting claims from other fishers, industrial sectors and environmental organizations (Spijkers and Boonstra 2016). Joking, fantasizing, complaining, displaying anger and cynicism are all ways to relieve some of the constant tension of not being able to satisfy aspirations due to changes in social and ecological conditions.…”

Ecosystems say good management pays off

“…Jurisdictional divisions can also lead to fisheries management tensions, particularly when ecosystems span multiple jurisdictions. This has led, for example, to UN agreements regarding straddling stocks (UN, ), but has grown to be a larger system‐level topic as shifting environmental conditions and variable stock status have challenged fisheries management authorities on either side of national borders or who participate in regional fisheries management organizations (Hátún et al., ; Spijkers & Boonstra, ). Some have questioned whether the additional investment in management is warranted if it is only applied to part of the system (e.g., stock) in discussions of the implementation of EBFM (or even single‐species management of straddling stocks) (Gulland, ; Munro, Van Houtte, & Willmann, ).…”

Preparing ocean governance for species on the move

“…The so-called mackerel war erupted in 2007 when the northeast Atlantic Mackerel stock (Scomber scombrus)-a fishery then managed by the European Union, Norway, and Faroe Islands-shifted into Iceland s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) (7). Conflict erupted over appropriate allocations among the actors, compounded by disagreement about the drivers and therefore the expected duration of the shift.…”

“…Conflict erupted over appropriate allocations among the actors, compounded by disagreement about the drivers and therefore the expected duration of the shift. In the absence of cooperation, the mackerel stock became increasingly overfished (7).…”