End-User Probabilistic Programming

Abstract

Probabilistic programming aims to help users make decisions under uncertainty. The user writes code representing a probabilistic model, and receives outcomes as distributions or summary statistics. We consider probabilistic programming for end-users, in particular spreadsheet users, estimated to number in tens to hundreds of millions. We examine the sources of uncertainty actually encountered by spreadsheet users, and their coping mechanisms, via an interview study. We examine spreadsheet-based interfaces and technology to help reason under uncertainty, via probabilistic and other means. We show how uncertain values can propagate uncertainty through spreadsheets, and how sheet-defined functions can be applied to handle uncertainty. Hence, we draw conclusions about the promise and limitations of probabilistic programming for end-users.

“It’s Freedom to Put Things Where My Mind Wants”: Understanding and Improving the User Experience of Structuring Data in Spreadsheets

“…Convertino et al [24] found that spreadsheet users did not take full advantage of the data available due to a gap in their quantitative analytical skills. Others have explored the strategies users apply to cope with uncertainty in their data [11][12][13].…”

Investigating Uncertainty in Postoperative Bleeding Management: Design Principles for Decision Support

“…Spreadsheets and databases have been an area of focus for some of this work. The most widespread end-user programming tool is the spreadsheet, where users can make use of tools such as formulas to serve their own purposes (Nardi 1993) and PPLs have been explored in this context (Geddes et al) (Borghouts et al 2019;Blackwell et al 2019). In the context of databases, BayesDB (Mansinghka et al 2015) is a general platform that uses program synthesis approaches that allow end-users to create queries for a database to build models using a SQLlike language.…”

Building Custom Spreadsheet Functions with Python: End-User Software Engineering Approach

“…This translates to improved collaboration, scalability, and operational efficiency [1]. A significant trend in software technology is the rise of interactive applications built not by professional developers, but by domain experts leveraging computational tools to achieve their goals [2].…”

“…The global EUC market is estimated at USD 10.3 billion in 2022 and is projected for an 11% CAGR by 2032, reflecting the growing demand for EUC solutions driven by digital transformation across industries efficiency [1]. Research has shown that spreadsheets are a form of code, with spreadsheet users acting as end-user programmers [2]. Excel, specifically, remains one of the most popular end-user programming environments, with its importance in the business world continuing to rise [3].…”