El Niño Southern Oscillation and decadal climate variability impacts on crop yields and adaptation value

Abstract

Ocean-atmospheric phenomena (OAP) have been found to be associated with regional climate variability and, in turn, agricultural production. Previous research has shown that advance information on OAP and its climate implications could provide valuable opportunities to adjust agriculture practices. In this study, we review OAP effects on crop yields, covering both shorter-term El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and longer-term ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Gradient (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We review both statistical approaches and simulation models that have been used to assess OAP impacts on crop yields. Findings show heterogeneous impacts across crops, regions, OAP phases, and seasons. Evidence also indicates that more frequent and extreme OAP phases would damage agriculture. However, economic gains could be achieved via adaptation strategies responding to the early release of OAP phase information. Discussions on current knowledge gaps and future research issues are included.

Enso and climate variability in Papua

“…The Monsoon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [1,4], and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) [3,5] are some of the variables that affect Indonesia's climate variability. Seasonal variations in Indonesia are brought on by the monsoon, which is the movement of air masses from Asia and Australia.…”