Effects of Seabed Surface Rupture Versus Buried Rupture on Tsunami Wave Modeling: A Case Study for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, Earthquake

Goda, Katsuichiro

doi:10.1785/0120150091

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…It has been also observed that this filtering effect is less effective for shallower rupture areas. For instance, Goda [] analyzed identical earthquakes with different fault depths. He noted that shallower earthquakes were associated with sharper seabed deformations patterns.…”

Section: Stochastic Modeling Of Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquake slip distribution and location

et al. 2017

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This paper proposes a stochastic approach to model the earthquake uncertainties in terms of the rupture location and the slip distribution for a future event, with an expected earthquake magnitude. Once the statistical properties of earthquake uncertainties are described, they are then propagated into the tsunami response and the inundation at assessed coastal areas. The slip distribution is modeled as a random field within a nonrectangular rupture area. The Karhunen‐Lòeve (K‐L) expansion method is used to generate samples of the random slip, and a translation model is employed to obtain target probability properties. A strategy is developed to specify the accuracy of the random samples in terms of numbers of subfaults of the rupture area and the truncation of the K‐L expansion. The propagation of uncertainty into the tsunami response is performed by means of a Stochastic Reduced Order Model. To illustrate the methodology, we investigated a study case in north Chile. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability properties. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than those obtained with classic Monte Carlo simulations. To validate the methodology, we compared the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for the 2014 Chilean earthquake. Results show that leading wave measurements fall within the tsunami sample space. At later times, however, there are mismatches between measured data and the simulated results, suggesting that other sources of uncertainties are as relevant as the uncertainty of earthquakes.

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Section: Stochastic Modeling Of Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquake slip distribution and location

et al. 2017

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“…In the above-mentioned procedure for calculating the water surface elevation, the hydrodynamic response of seawater is not accounted for. Caution needs to be exercised when modelling tsunamigenic earthquakes with major asperities on a gently dipping fault plane at a shallow depth (applicable to the Nankai -Tonankai earthquake), because large peak vertical deformation is generated along the top edge of the dipping fault (Goda 2015) as a result of the assumption of elastic behaviour of the rock encoded in the Okada (1985) solutions. In reality, strongly non-linear (plastic) deformation occurs, which is typically not accounted for in tsunami simulations: instead, the seabed deformation calculated from the Okada (1985) equations is used directly as an input sea surface condition in the tsunami simulation.…”

Section: Offshore Tsunami Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

Goda

Yasuda

Martin

et al. 2017

Self Cite

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In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai-Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario ruptures also account for key features of the national tsunami source model for the Nankai-Tonankai earthquake by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Government. The source models capture a wide range of realistic slip distributions and kinematic rupture processes, reflecting the current best understanding of what may happen due to a future mega-earthquake in the Nankai-Tonankai Trough, and therefore are useful for conducting probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. A large suite of scenario rupture models is then used to investigate the variability of tsunami effects in coastal areas, such as offshore tsunami wave heights and onshore inundation depths, due to realistic variations in source characteristics. Such investigations are particularly valuable for tsunami hazard mapping and evacuation planning in municipalities along the Nankai-Tonankai coast.

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“…Global coupled ocean‐atmosphere numerical models are commonly used to determine offshore sea state conditions (e.g., Janssen & Bidlot 2018). Further numerical models and/or theoretical/empirical relations (e.g., Burcharth & Hughes, 2000; Goda, 2015; Kang et al., 2020) are then used to calculate shoaling and runup processes to estimate wave height and period at the coast. These models and theoretical/empirical relations assume that conditions are stationary and are commonly calibrated with wave climatology measured at the coast for at least a few months.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Simultaneous Water Level and Wave Measurements From Multi‐GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry Over 1 Year at an Exposed Coastal Site

Sepúlveda

Cao

Haase

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Introduction Standard Observations of Coastal Water Level VariationsLong-term records of water levels and waves that describe the sea state in coastal areas are essential for urban planning and the design of coastal infrastructure. They capture measurements of extreme events, such as strong extratropical and tropical cyclones, that are necessary for probabilistic estimates of hazard and mitigation efforts. They also provide important ground-truth data for marine analyses, validation data for numerical forecasts, and useful information for environmental and marine energy assessments.Because of their regularity, typical astronomic tidal variations on the order of 1-4 m of amplitude usually pose little hazard to urban infrastructure. Even large tides of up to 6 m (e.g., at Saint Malo, France and Chiloe Inland Sea, Chile) are usually not dangerous because construction has evolved to accommodate this range. Tides can

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Effects of Seabed Surface Rupture Versus Buried Rupture on Tsunami Wave Modeling: A Case Study for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, Earthquake

Cited by 10 publications

References 17 publications

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquake slip distribution and location

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquake slip distribution and location

Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

Optimizing Simultaneous Water Level and Wave Measurements From Multi‐GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry Over 1 Year at an Exposed Coastal Site

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