Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: a multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts

Abstract

This article presents a multi-model assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the respective economy-wide implications of adaptation measures for two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration targets, namely the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)2.6 and RCP4.5, and subsequent temperature increases. We combine our analysis, focusing on the global level, as well as on individual G20 countries, with the corresponding stylized RCP mitigation efforts in order to understand the implications of interactions across mitigation, adaptation and sea level rise on a macroeconomic level. Our global results indicate that until the middle of this century, differences in macroeconomic impacts between the two climatic scenarios are small, but increase substantially towards the end of the century. Moreover, direct economic impacts can be partially absorbed by substitution effects in production processes and via international trade effects until 2050. By 2100 however, we find that this dynamic no longer holds and economy-wide effects become even larger than direct impacts. The disturbances of mitigation efforts to the overall economy may in some regions and for some scenarios lead to a counterintuitive result, namely to GDP losses that are higher in RCP26 than in RCP45, despite higher direct coastal damages in the latter scenario. Within the G20, our results indicate that China, India and Canada will experience the highest macroeconomic impacts, in line with the respective direct climatic impacts, with the two first large economies undertaking the highest mitigation efforts in a cost-efficient global climate action. A sensitivity analysis of varying socioeconomic assumptions highlights the role of climate-resilient development as a crucial complement to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change

“…Finally, progress can come from combining models of different types as well as their structured comparison, such as (88). For example, biophysical model outputs can be used as the independent variables for estimating micro-and macroeconomic econometric models, with the potential for both improving the predictability of these models and avoiding the parameterization of the biophysical relationship.…”

“…Short-run adaptation to weather fluctuations should be distinguished from long-run adaption to climate change (15), adaptation can occur in various sectors under different forms, and the adaptation decision can occur at a small scale (86) or at the wider global scale, in particular, the research and development of adaptive technologies (6). Some studies found substantial impact reductions through adaptation to future climate (38,87,88), but empirical evidence for adaptation to ongoing climate is mixed (7,89,90).…”

“…The PAGE and FUND models also represent adaptation (17). However, in most cases, explicit adaptation is modeled as an exogenous input in specific sectors where the adaptation costs and climate impact are both available, as for example for sea-level rise (88). Some adaptation dynamics often already exists, even partially, in integrated assessment models, whether explicitly or implicitly, for example through the socio-economic development (i.e., enhancing adaptive capacity through poverty reduction or education), savings and capital accumulation dynamics, or in the modeling of the damage persistency.…”

Linking climate change mitigation and adaptation through coastal green–gray infrastructure: a perspective

“…The human, environmental, and financial costs of inaction and failure to adapt to climate change are enormous. It is estimated that losses from flood damage due to a sea level rise of 1.3 m could equal 4% of global gross domestic product (currently US$4 trillion) annually (Ichinko et al 2019). At present, global infrastructure valued at US$100 trillion is at risk and underinsured.…”

Citizen-Science with off-the-shelf UAV for Coastal Monitoring

“…Most of the world's coastlines have limited data observation, in contrast to the coastal zone where the megacities are located [8]. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, and this trend is anticipated to continue and increase in the next decades [9], resulting in more frequent coastal flooding, material asset destruction, and an elevated risk of human death [10]. These effects will be accentuated by the great concentration of activities, services, and people in coastal cities.…”