Economic analysis through alternative data and big data techniques: what do they tell about Brazil?

Abstract

Alternative data are now widely used in economic analyses worldwide but still infrequent in studies on the Brazilian economy. This research demonstrates how alternative data extracted from Google Trends and Google Mobility contribute to innovative economic analysis. First, it demonstrates that the search for the future on the internet is correlated (R=0.62) with the average household income in Brazilian states. The three Brazilian states with the most people looking for the future on the internet have an average household income 1.6 times higher than people from states that do not have this behavior. The search for the future represents 10.9% of the economic development potential of the states, while the proportion of people with university degrees, scientific publications, and researchers represents another 60.4%. The reduction in mobility in retail/recreation locations averaged 34.28% in Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay. This group of countries had COVID-19 infection and death rates 1.25 and 1.74 times higher than in countries that reduced their mobility in retail/recreation locations by 45.03%. The impact of reduced mobility in retail/recreation locations on the unemployment rate, gross domestic product degrowth, and inflation in countries such as Brazil was 1.1, 2.2, and 2.6 times lower than in countries that reduced mobility more of people. The research contributions are associated with identifying new indicators extracted from alternative data and their application to carry out innovative economic analyses.JEL Code: A12; C00; E01; J1