Econometric critique of the economic change model of mortality

Macroeconomics and Drug Use: A Review of the Literature and Hypotheses for Future Research

“…Applying a time-series model with lagged effects, they developed an economic change model of mortality and concluded that economic downturns were associated with increasing mortality. While Brenner's findings were widely reported and were consistent with what many economists and public health professionals considered to be common sense conclusions, the methodology was criticized on statistical grounds by a number of economists and statisticians (e.g., Gravelle, Hutchinson, and Stern, 1981;Wagstaff, 1985;Søgaard, 1992). Criticisms have included the choice of lag lengths, the choice of covariates, the hypothesized pattern of lag coefficients, shifting specifications over time, and the implausibility of the finding of strongest effects for infants and the elderly, groups for which macroeconomic forces would not seem likely to have their greatest effects.…”

Macroeconomics and Drug Use: A Review of the Literature and Hypotheses for Future Research

“…Applying a time-series model with lagged effects, they developed an economic change model of mortality and concluded that economic downturns were associated with increasing mortality. While Brenner's findings were widely reported and were consistent with what many economists and public health professionals considered to be common sense conclusions, the methodology was criticized on statistical grounds by a number of economists and statisticians (e.g., Gravelle, Hutchinson, and Stern, 1981;Wagstaff, 1985;Søgaard, 1992). Criticisms have included the choice of lag lengths, the choice of covariates, the hypothesized pattern of lag coefficients, shifting specifications over time, and the implausibility of the finding of strongest effects for infants and the elderly, groups for which macroeconomic forces would not seem likely to have their greatest effects.…”

Banking crises and mortality during the Great Depression: evidence from US urban populations, 1929–1937

“…Whether lagged effects of recessions exist has been debated,51 52 but in the present context, it is important to note that our findings are consistent with research by Cutler et al , applying the concept of life-course epidemiology, that found no adverse consequences for those who were being born at the time 53. We also cannot exclude delayed effects on mortality arising from risk factors, such as increased adoption of smoking, which would require decades to manifest as clinical disease and mortality.…”

Life and death during the Great Depression

“…This hypothesis has generated considerable debate (11)(12)(13). Given the restricted time frame of the present investigation, we could not explore lagged effects beyond 3 years, and thus cannot rule out longer lagged effects.…”

Macroeconomics and Drug Use: A Review of the Literature and Hypotheses for Future Research

“…Applying a time-series model with lagged effects, they developed an economic change model of mortality and concluded that economic downturns were associated with increasing mortality. While Brenner's findings were widely reported and were consistent with what many economists and public health professionals considered to be common sense conclusions, the methodology was criticized on statistical grounds by a number of economists and statisticians (e.g., Gravelle, Hutchinson, and Stern, 1981;Wagstaff, 1985;Søgaard, 1992). Criticisms have included the choice of lag lengths, the choice of covariates, the hypothesized pattern of lag coefficients, shifting specifications over time, and the implausibility of the finding of strongest effects for infants and the elderly, groups for which macroeconomic forces would not seem likely to have their greatest effects.…”

Banking crises and mortality during the Great Depression: evidence from US urban populations, 1929–1937

“…Whether lagged effects of recessions exist has been debated,51 52 but in the present context, it is important to note that our findings are consistent with research by Cutler et al , applying the concept of life-course epidemiology, that found no adverse consequences for those who were being born at the time 53. We also cannot exclude delayed effects on mortality arising from risk factors, such as increased adoption of smoking, which would require decades to manifest as clinical disease and mortality.…”

Life and death during the Great Depression

“…This hypothesis has generated considerable debate (11)(12)(13). Given the restricted time frame of the present investigation, we could not explore lagged effects beyond 3 years, and thus cannot rule out longer lagged effects.…”

Macroeconomics and Drug Use: A Review of the Literature and Hypotheses for Future Research

“…Applying a time-series model with lagged effects, they developed an economic change model of mortality and concluded that economic downturns were associated with increasing mortality. While Brenner's findings were widely reported and were consistent with what many economists and public health professionals considered to be common sense conclusions, the methodology was criticized on statistical grounds by a number of economists and statisticians (e.g., Gravelle, Hutchinson, and Stern, 1981;Wagstaff, 1985;Søgaard, 1992). Criticisms have included the choice of lag lengths, the choice of covariates, the hypothesized pattern of lag coefficients, shifting specifications over time, and the implausibility of the finding of strongest effects for infants and the elderly, groups for which macroeconomic forces would not seem likely to have their greatest effects.…”

Banking crises and mortality during the Great Depression: evidence from US urban populations, 1929–1937

“…Whether lagged effects of recessions exist has been debated,51 52 but in the present context, it is important to note that our findings are consistent with research by Cutler et al , applying the concept of life-course epidemiology, that found no adverse consequences for those who were being born at the time 53. We also cannot exclude delayed effects on mortality arising from risk factors, such as increased adoption of smoking, which would require decades to manifest as clinical disease and mortality.…”

Life and death during the Great Depression

“…This hypothesis has generated considerable debate (11)(12)(13). Given the restricted time frame of the present investigation, we could not explore lagged effects beyond 3 years, and thus cannot rule out longer lagged effects.…”