Ecological Modeling Guide for Ecosystem Restoration and Management

Abstract

Ecological models are important tools for planning ecosystem restoration and management activities. Models help to organize thinking, conceptualize understanding of complex systems, and forecast environmental benefits that may result from proposed restoration and management actions. This report provides information to guide environmental planers in selection, development, evaluation, and documentation of ecological models. A number of critical issues are addressed, including specifying objectives and formulating a sound conceptual model, choosing among types of models, deciding when to develop a new model, systematically evaluating the quantitative model, addressing parameter and model uncertainty, developing sections of the model through iteration, analyzing alternatives, and documenting results. Quantitative modeling is shown to be a dynamic process that is best served using an iterative approach. In practice, individual parts of a conceptual model are quantified and evaluated in a stepwise fashion until the entire model is captured quantitatively. This iterative approach creates transparency in model development, which can remove the "black-box" stigma that has been associated with the use of models in the environmental sciences.

Proposed best modeling practices for assessing the effects of ecosystem restoration on fish

“…The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has put forth a guide for using ecological modeling for ecosystem restoration (Swannack et al, 2012). Once a specific problem has been identified and both the planning and modeling objectives have been clearly defined, the basic scheme is: (1) develop a conceptual model identifying the specific cause-effect relationships among important components of the system of interest, (2) quantify these relationships based on analysis of the best information possible, which can include scientific data or expert opinion, (3) evaluate the information yielded by the model in terms of its ability to provide information that describes or emulates system behavior, (4) apply the model to address questions regarding the effects of particular project alternatives, and (5) perform periodic post-audits of model applications to manage confidence in the model.…”

“…Concept 9: Verification, calibration, and validation Verification, calibration, and validation are three very important steps in establishing model credibility. Swannack et al (2012) offer useful definitions:…”

Science-based Framework for Environmental Benefits Assessment

“…Various analytical models might also be constructed to integrate benefits arising from different sources of ecological change. Additional guidance is provided in Swannack et al (2012).…”

“…In many cases, the "correct" model does not exist, and a model must be developed or adapted to meet the needs of the specific project and circumstances. Swannack et al (2012) provide generalized guidance regarding the steps that constitute good practice for evaluating models for technical efficacy. Candidate models may be evaluated using the following five steps:…”

“…In the event that an existing model does not meet the needs of a given study, Swannack et al (2012) also detail the process of model adaptation and development. The basic approach is to 1) develop a conceptual model of the specific cause-effect relationships among important components of the system, 2) quantify these relationships based on analysis of the best infor-mation possible, which can include scientific data or expert opinion, 3) evaluate the usefulness of the model in terms of its ability to simulate system behavior, and 4) apply the model to address needed questions.…”