Ecological effects of climate change on little penguins Eudyptula minor and the potential economic impact on tourism

Abstract

Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investigated anticipated impacts of climatic changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island, southeastern Australia, and the potential economic impact on the associated tourism industry over the next century. We project a small loss of penguin breeding habitat due to sea level rise, although breeding habitat is unlikely to be limiting over this period. However, some erosion in the vicinity of tourism infrastructure will undoubtedly occur which will have economic implications. We anti cipate little direct impact of decreased rainfall and humidity. However, fire risk may increase, and extreme climate events may reduce adult and chick survival slightly. Warmer oceans are likely to improve recruitment into the breeding population but the effect on adult survival is unclear. Overall, many aspects of little penguin biology are likely to be affected by climatic change but no net negative effect on population size is projected from existing analyses. Ocean acidification has the potential to be a highly significant negative influence, but present assessments are speculative. Some of the predicted negative impacts can be addressed in the shortterm, particularly those resulting from expected changes to the terrestrial environment. Others, particularly in the marine environment, appear to have limited options for mitigation locally. In the absence of evidence indicating population decline, economic impact may be confined to issues for tourism infrastructure due to increased sea-levels during storm events.KEY WORDS: Climate change · Resilience · Adaptation · Seabird · Southern Australia · Penguin 58: 67-79, 2013 by location and species . In Western Australia, for example, breeding distributions of tropical seabirds shifted southward as regional sea-surface temperatures (SST) increased (Dunlop 2009), and changes have been observed in seabird breeding timing and reproductive success (Dunlop 2009, Surman & Nicholson 2009, including for the little penguin (Cannell et al. 2012). Warmer SSTs, asso ciated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have also been associated with reductions in seabird populations on the Great Barrier Reef (Heatwole et al. 1996, Batianoff & Cornelius 2005. Increased SSTs are believed to reduce prey availability to seabirds through decreased productivity at lower trophic levels and/or movement of forage fish or subsurface predators, either horizontally or vertical ly (Peck et al. 2004, Erwin & Congdon 2007, Devney et al. 2010. Strong winds and severe storms also affect seabird breeding participation, success of breeding and mortality (King et al. 1992, Garnett et al. 2010. Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher FREE REE ACCESS CCESSClim ResLong-term datasets are central to understanding how species respond to climate change (Poloczanska et al. 2007). The datasets available for little penguins on Phillip Island are unusual in their durations (since 1968 for some paramet...

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds

“…Adult Little Penguins do not migrate although there are pronounced local movements and dispersion of the penguins breeding on Phillip Island in winter (McCutcheon et al 2011). Little Penguins remain ashore for up to 3 weeks during moult (Reilly and Cullen1983), making them vulnerable to extreme heat and rainfall events (Cannell et al 2011;Dann and Chambers 2013), predation and human disturbance.…”

“…A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the relationship between ocean temperature and breeding productivity including SST affecting recruitment, productivity and the distribution of prey and warmer water earlier in the year which may result in more prey close to the colony at the time of breeding ). Projected increases in ocean temperature under climate change are expected to improve breeding success for some colonies, at least in the short term Dann and Chambers 2013).…”

“…Projected warming of land surface temperatures is expected to have a negative impact on breeding and moult in Little Penguins (Dann and Chambers 2013) with temperatures above 35 °C leading to increased heat stress Dann and Chambers 2013). As warmer (ocean) conditions are expected to shift moult and breeding towards earlier (cooler) periods of the year, at least for the colonies in south-eastern Australia and New Zealand, there is some potential to offset the negative impacts of increased land surface temperatures.…”

“…, in particular for the Little Penguins of Phillip Island (e.g. Dann and Chambers 2013). Most suggested adaptation options designed to allow managers to buffer seabirds against changing climatic or oceanographic conditions are land-based, with few developed around the marine environment.…”

“…Heat stress in Little Penguins is a significant issue, particularly as air surface temperatures are projected to rise (Dann and Chambers 2013). There are a number of simple adaptation options that can be used to reduce heat exposure by the penguins.…”