Dynamical models of acute respiratory illness caused by human adenovirus on campus

Abstract

Acute respiratory illness caused by human adenovirus have been increasing in morbidity and mortality in recent years. Currently, isolation of symptomatic infected individuals is the primary means of controlling outbreaks in closed spaces such as schools and military camps. However, the disease is still spreading despite the implementation of control measures. To reveal the underlying mechanism of this phenomenon, we propose a dynamic model that considers invisible transmission and isolated confirmed cases. By calculating and analyzing the control reproduction number, it is found that asymptomatic infected individuals play an important role in the spread of the epidemic. Therefore, in the absence of specific vaccines, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine of exposed individuals are effective means to mitigate severity. The results show that the earlier the control of invisible transmission is implemented, the lower the peak and the shorter the duration of the outbreak. These findings will provide the theoretical basis and recommendations for prevention and control of human adenovirus transmission in closed spaces.

Path analysis method in an epidemic model and stability analysis

“…The study of stability is one of the most important subjects in the infectious disease model. Many studies [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35] give the methods for proving the local and global stabilities of the singularities. Lyapunov's second method and Lasalle's invariance principle are the most common methods for proving global stability.…”