Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios: the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Maestripieri, Nicolas; Houet, Thomas; Paegelow, Martin; Selleron, Gilles; Balbontin, Darío Toro; Villalobos, Nicolás Sáez

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2015.10.013

Cited by 16 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…Replacement of native forests by pine plantations started before the 1970s, which is the first sign that not only DL-701 favored its occurrence [69], but that there were also other variables strongly influencing this kind of transformation. During the 1950's there were already approximately 180,000 ha of Monterey pine plantations in the Country, mostly of them in our study region and, to a lesser extent in the Central Valley of Biobío and Ñ uble regions and the Malleco province of Araucanía region [37].…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 90%

Pine plantations and five decades of land use change in central Chile

2020

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The expansion of forest plantations is cause for concern because of their environmental effects, and the loss of native forests and agricultural land. Our goal was to quantify the increase in pine plantation, and concomitant loss of native forests, in central Chile since ca. 1960, and to identify in which settings native forests were lost most rapidly. We analyzed aerial photographs from 1955 and 1961, Landsat images from 1975and 1998 Earth high-resolution satellite images from 2014. To ensure high classification accuracy, we visually interpreted images for a systematic 3-km grid and assigned each point as either 'pine plantation', 'native forest', 'agricultural-livestock lands', or 'other'. We also calculated latitude, longitude, slope, Euclidean distance to the nearest road and to the nearest pulp mill, and the frequency of land use surrounding each point as potential variables to explain observed land use changes. Pine plantations expansion started even before 1960, when 12% of all points were already pine plantations, was particularly rapid from 1975 (18% of sample points) to 1998 (38%), and stabilized thereafter (37% by 2014). From 1975 to 1998 alone, 40% of native forests were replaced by pine plantations, and agricultural-livestock lands declined by 0.7%, 0.9%, 1% per year before 1975, from 1975 to 1998, and after 1998 respectively. Native forests that were surrounded by pine plantations, were most likely to be converted to plantations, and from 1960 to 1975, also native forests near pulp mills. The probability of change from agricultural-livestock lands to pine plantations was mainly influenced by slope, with most agricultural-livestock lands remaining in areas with low slopes. regrowth on abandoned agriculture, and partly due to plantations [11][12][13]. The forest transition hypothesis proposed by Mather and Needle [14] suggests that the concentration of agricultural production by farmers on better soils, promotes the abandonment of poorer soils, and allowing for natural reforestation or plantations, thereby increasing forest cover in some places [15,16]. An important forest cover increase, after agricultural abandonment, is in the form of forest plantation expansion [13,17], and that has been observed in several developing countries, mainly in Asia and Latin America [18][19][20].While worldwide natural forest declined between 1990 and 2015, forest plantations increased from 168 M ha to 278 M during the same period [10]. Plantations are often promoted by governments to bring abandoned or agricultural unproductive lands back into use, and mechanisms for that promotion include tax reductions or subsidies with the purpose of stimulating economic development and forestry industry [21,22]. Nevertheless, not only abandoned and unproductive lands have been converted into plantations, native vegetation has also been transformed into forest plantations (e.g. [23][24][25]), which means that the growing of global forest cover entails concomitant native forest loss (e.g. [19,26]).Agglomeration economies (sensu [2...

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 90%

Pine plantations and five decades of land use change in central Chile

2020

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“…In addition, we analyzed the interactions between the changes observed (for instance in the shift from native forest to timber plantation) and the driving forces (land tenure, proximity to roads, and so on) (Maestripieri and Paegelow 2013). All the standardization process, weighting procedure and technique compensation between the factors and the level of risk-taking are presented in research by Maestripieri et al (2015).…”

Section: Methods For Estimating Quantity Allocation and Calibration mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both are non-participatory models and are added to two normative scenarios (eco-centric and intensive) ( Fig. 2) that were presented in previous research (Maestripieri et al 2015).…”

Section: Prospective Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The process of selection of physical, natural, social and economic drivers is detailed in Maestripieri et al (2015). Briefly, we used GIS and satellite data (from Landsat imagery) such as Land Use (LU), Distance from Existing Land Cover features (DExLC), Slope (SLP), Altitude (ALT), Coastal Range (CoR) and Pre-Coastal Range (Pre-CoR), Distance from Road Network (DRoNet), Land Tenure (LdTen), Distance from Coastal Road (DCoRo).…”

Section: Modeled Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This gives rise to two main tasks. The first, based on a retrospective approach (Maestripieri andPaegelow 2013, Maestripieri et al 2015), involves assessing how the industrial timber plantations evolved (rhythmicity and underlying factors) and their spatial trajectories and the second requires the use of prospective modeling to determine their spatiotemporal dynamics in the medium term. Prospective modeling can provide a useful framework for analysis as it embraces spatial concepts, temporality (past-present-future) and the intentionality of the stakeholders.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling the Future Evolution of Chilean Forests to Guide Current Practices. Native Forest and Industrial Timber Plantations in Southern Chile

Maestripieri

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Selleron

2017

Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios

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Scientific research builds projects and seeks to achieve specific goals that refer to the principles of scientific inference: deduction, induction and abduction. These inferences correspond to the time path of the prediction -which belongs to the world of rationality and accuracy -and scenarios -which transcribe the uncertain nature of the studied process and can describe, in some cases, a probable future, desirable or not. Because the conclusion of deductive inference stems from premises, predictive simulation must be the result of past observations. Optimization of these results requires a rigorous calibration of the model, in order to reproduce a known situation (past or present). Scenarios are not predictions. For exploratory scenarios (forecasting), plausible hypotheses are built from observed processes and can only be verified a posteriori. The scenario begins with a given situation in the present and moves forward into the future, responding to the question "What may happen if …?" The normative scenario (inductive inference) describes a probable or desirable (or undesirable) future and then moves backwards to the present, i.e. retrospectively. The attitude is proactive towards the future and responds to the question "How can a specific target be reached?" These inferences give rise to specific approaches in terms of modeling and simulation. By focusing on forest dynamics in the south of Chile, this paper presents an expert approach (multi-criteria evaluation with Markovian chains) to map predictive and exploratory scenarios. The results open up various interesting lines of discussion in terms of resource management and clearly show the importance of model calibration (choice of data and configuration) upstream of the simulation process.

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Ecological security early-warning in central Yunnan Province, China, based on the gray model

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Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios: the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Cited by 16 publications

References 33 publications

Pine plantations and five decades of land use change in central Chile

Pine plantations and five decades of land use change in central Chile

Modeling the Future Evolution of Chilean Forests to Guide Current Practices. Native Forest and Industrial Timber Plantations in Southern Chile

Ecological security early-warning in central Yunnan Province, China, based on the gray model

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