Dynamic model of bovine brucellosis to investigate control strategies in endemic settings

Holt, Hannah; Walker, Martin; Beavais, Wendy; Kaur, Parvinder; Bedi, Jasbir Singh; Mangtani, Punam; Sharma, N S; Gill, James S.; Godfroid, Jacques; McGiven, John; Guitian, Javier

doi:10.1101/2022.03.14.483550

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 35 publications

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“…Finally, to increase precision of the estimate, a design effect of 1.56 was applied giving a minimum sample size of 210 herds (n 2 ). This design effect was assumed considering the absence of any previous similar study conducted in the country that can be used to calculate cluster variance values, hence we referred the value used in a similar study conducted by Holt et al (28) and the rule-of-thumb suggested by others (29,30).…”

Section: Sampling Design and Sample Sizementioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of brucellosis and associated risk factors in dairy cattle in Maekel and Debub Regions, Eritrea

Efrem,

Mihreteab,

Ghebremariam

et al. 2023

Front. Vet. Sci.

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IntroductionBrucellosis is a zoonotic disease with worldwide distribution. It is considered endemic in Eritrea, however, the current prevalence status and related risk factors in animals are unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for brucellosis in dairy cattle in Maekel and Debub regions, Eritrea.MethodsA cross sectional study was conducted between August 2021 and February 2022. A total of 2,740 dairy cattle from 214 herds in 10 sub-regions of Eritrea were selected for blood and data collection. Blood samples were tested using Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and positive samples were confirmed using competitive (c-ELISA). Data on risk factors was collected using questionnaire and analyzed using logistic regression.ResultsIn total, 34/2740 animals tested positive by RBPT. Of these, 29 were confirmed positive by c-ELISA, giving an apparent and estimated true individual-level prevalence of 1.1% (95% CI: 0.7, 1.5%) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.9, 1.8%), respectively. Sixteen herds (7.5%) tested positive by RBPT and of these 15 herds (7.0%) were confirmed positive by c-ELISA, giving an estimated true herd-level prevalence of 7.0% (95% CI: 4.0, 10.7). Animal and herd-level apparent prevalence was 1.6 and 9.2% in Maekel, while in Debub it was 0.6 and 5.5%, respectively. Multivariable regression analysis indicated that non-pregnant lactating cows (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.35; p = 0.042) were more likely to be Brucella sero-positive. History of abortion on the farm (aOR = 5.71; p = 0.026) and larger number of cows in the herd (aOR = 1.14; p < 0.001) were associated with brucellosis sero-positivity in herds.ConclusionBrucellosis prevalence was low in the study areas. Nonetheless, this low prevalence may increase if the disease is not controlled. Therefore, testing animals before movement, good farming practices, sanitary measures, and an awareness raising program on brucellosis are recommended.

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Section: Sampling Design and Sample Sizementioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of brucellosis and associated risk factors in dairy cattle in Maekel and Debub Regions, Eritrea

Efrem,

Mihreteab,

Ghebremariam

et al. 2023

Front. Vet. Sci.

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Accessibility of the three-year comprehensive prevention and control of brucellosis in Ningxia: a mathematical modeling study

et al. 2023

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Background Brucellosis is a chronic zoonotic disease, and Ningxia is one of the high prevalence regions in China. To mitigate the spread of brucellosis, the government of Ningxia has implemented a comprehensive prevention and control plan (2022-2024). It is meaningful to quantitatively evaluate the accessibility of this strategy. Methods Based on the transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Ningxia, we propose a dynamical model of sheep-human-environment, which coupling with the stage structure of sheep and indirect environmental transmission. We first calculate the basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ R 0 and use the model to fit the data of human brucellosis. Then, three widely applied control strategies of brucellosis in Ningxia, that is, slaughtering of sicked sheep, health education to high risk practitioners, and immunization of adult sheep, are evaluated. Results The basic reproduction number is calculated as $$R_{0}=1.47$$ R 0 = 1.47 , indicating that human brucellosis will persist. The model has a good alignment with the human brucellosis data. The quantitative accessibility evaluation results show that current brucellosis control strategy may not reach the goal on time. “Ningxia Brucellosis Prevention and Control Special Three-Year Action Implementation Plan (2022-2024)” will be achieved in 2024 when increasing slaughtering rate $$\gamma$$ γ by 30$$\%$$ % , increasing health education to reduce $$\beta _{h}$$ β h to 50$$\%$$ % , and an increase of immunization rate of adult sheep $$\theta$$ θ by 40$$\%$$ % . Conclusion The results demonstrate that the comprehensive control measures are the most effective for brucellosis control, and it is necessary to further strengthen the multi-sectoral joint mechanism and adopt integrated measures to prevention and control brucellosis. These results can provide a reliable quantitative basis for further optimizing the prevention and control strategy of brucellosis in Ningxia.

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Dynamic model of bovine brucellosis to investigate control strategies in endemic settings

Cited by 2 publications

References 35 publications

Prevalence of brucellosis and associated risk factors in dairy cattle in Maekel and Debub Regions, Eritrea

Prevalence of brucellosis and associated risk factors in dairy cattle in Maekel and Debub Regions, Eritrea

Accessibility of the three-year comprehensive prevention and control of brucellosis in Ningxia: a mathematical modeling study

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