DSSAT modelling of conservation agriculture maize response to climate change in Malawi

Ngwira, A.; Aune, Jens B.; Thierfelder, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.still.2014.05.003

Cited by 90 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Compared to other reported findings of massive reductions in maize yields in SSA and Malawi10304549, our study findings anticipate the decline in future maize yields in Lilongwe District to be moderate. This is because the projected changes for both the amount of rainfall and temperature increase, in the study area, are modest.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 87%

“…Furthermore, the low soil water content will reduce the amount of nitrogen that is taken up by maize plants40, which could significantly reduce maize yields46. In the long-term future, rainfall variability and a shorter maize growing season are likely to be key drivers for reduced maize yields134045. The projected maize yield declines are moderate compared to a recent study by Msowoya30 who reported reductions in the range of −33% to −13% for the end of the century in Lilongwe District.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…It is understood that under well watered conditions maize responds positively to increasing CO 2 levels, up to a point, because of an increase in canopy size which translates to higher productivity and yields44 through CO 2 fertilisation6. These findings for the 2020s contradict earlier CC impact studies in Lilongwe District which reported declines in maize yields in the short-term future3045.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

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Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Stevens

Madani

2016

Sci Rep

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Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 87%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

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Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Stevens

Madani

2016

Sci Rep

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“…CERES (Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis)-Rice and -Maize are process-based models embedded in DSSAT simulate the main processes of crop growth and development such as phenological development, canopy leaf area growth, dry matter accumulation and grain yield. The CERES-Rice andMaize models were evaluated by many researchers across locations (Sarkar and Kar, 2006;Timsina and Humphreys, 2006;O'Neal et al, 2002;Behera and Panda, 2009;Liu et al, 2011;He et al, 2012;Salmerón et al, 2012;Jeong et al, 2014;Ngwira et al, 2014) with good agreements between predicted and observed values. Even though simulation results generally will have some uncertainties associated with inputs and model parameters, but still the simulation models can be effectively utilized as a scientific tool to increase the resource use efficiency of cropping systems (Timsina and Connor, 2001;Sarkar and Kar, 2008;Timsina and Humphreys, 2006;Timsina et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying irrigation and nitrogen best management practices for aerobic rice–maize cropping system for semi-arid tropics using CERES-rice and maize models

Kadiyala

Jones

Mylavarapu

et al. 2015

Agricultural Water Management

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“…It is the most economical method, crucial for measuring unobservable data and allows for execution of a wide range of statistical analysis (Bhattacherje, 2012). To ensure triangulation and collection of more details, the survey was augmented with ten key informant interviews (KIIs) consisting of extension workers, policy makers and experts on CA from government and the NGO sector, an approach also used by Ngwira et al (2014b). The combination of both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods is gaining ground because it enhances validity of findings when combined with appropriate instrument development and training of enumerators (Kuma, 2011).…”

Section: Data Collection Methods Sampling and Data Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Smallholder Farmer Innovation and Contexts in Maize-Based Conservation Agriculture Systems in Central Malawi

Kaluzi¹,

Thierfelder²,

Hopkins³

2017

SAR

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The increased threat of food insecurity and climate change requires more sustainable ways of agriculture intensification in African smallholder farming systems. Ample evidence confirms that maize-based conservation agriculture (CA) systems lead to increased soil health and yield enhancement yet their overall uptake remains low in Africa. An array of studies on challenges and solutions to CA systems conducted in southern Africa principally focussed on the views of scientists, often neglecting the views of CA farmers. Therefore, this study assessed farmer decision making, innovation and contexts during implementation of maize-based CA systems in communities of central Malawi. A survey involving interviews with 226 CA farmers was deployed, triangulated with key informants comprising extension workers and policy makers. The study showed that about 58% of smallholder farmers did not adapt CA practices to their circumstances because they were strictly following change agents" recommendations. The major challenge noted was competition for crop residues due to mice hunters and grazing livestock. Local by-laws initiated by the communities have started to privatise the crop residues and its grazing. However, other innovations were often not documented by extension workers, consequently neglecting more than half of the potential solutions provided by farmers. The establishments of a National Conservation Agriculture Task Force and CA guidelines are positive developments for coordination of stakeholders and harmonisation of CA messages in Malawi. However, for greater adoption, non-linear interaction and learning must be encouraged in practice by fully embracing innovative farmers and the voices of the pool of stakeholders with varying experiences.

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DSSAT modelling of conservation agriculture maize response to climate change in Malawi

Cited by 90 publications

References 29 publications

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Identifying irrigation and nitrogen best management practices for aerobic rice–maize cropping system for semi-arid tropics using CERES-rice and maize models

Smallholder Farmer Innovation and Contexts in Maize-Based Conservation Agriculture Systems in Central Malawi

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