Does the sectoral composition of growth affect child stunting reductions?

2018

Economies

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The role of economic growth in reducing child undernutrition remains an open and highly debated question that holds important implications for food security strategies. The empirical evidence has been quite contrasted, primarily in regard to the magnitude of the impacts. Yet, most studies have not (appropriately) accounted for the reverse causality between economic growth and child stunting. Using a dataset of 74 developing countries observed between 1984 and 2014, this paper develops a novel approach accounting for the reverse causal effect of stunting on GDP per capita and finds that the impacts of economic growth are much lower than estimated in most previous studies. A 10% increase in GDP per capita reduces child stunting prevalence by 2.7%. In other words, economic growth is modestly pro-poor. We also estimate that a percentage point increase in child stunting prevalence results in a 0.4% decrease in GDP per capita. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that stunting costs on average about 13.5% of GDP per capita in developing countries.

Section: Datasupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

How Much Does Economic Growth Contribute to Child Stunting Reductions?

2018

Economies

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The Superior Role of Agricultural Growth in Reducing Child Stunting: An Instrumental Variables Approach

The Role of Smallholder Farms in Food and Nutrition Security

Shaw

2020

This chapter examines the impacts of agricultural growth and non-agricultural growth on the prevalence of child stunting in developing countries between 1984 and 2014. We find that a 10% increase in agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would reduce stunting by 2.9%, whereas a similar relative increase in non-agricultural GDP per capita would reduce stunting by only 2.2%. We confirm that agricultural growth is superior to non-agricultural growth in reducing child stunting. However, given the moderate amplitude of the estimated effects, it is unlikely that a pro-poor growth strategy, even one focussed on agriculture, would generate sufficient stunting reductions in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Policymakers may consider prioritising their efforts towards complementary direct nutritional investments. We also estimate the reverse causal impacts of stunting on sectoral growth. Stunting costs on average approximately 13.6% of potential non-agricultural GDP per capita and 3.4% of potential agricultural GDP per capita.

Hungry for free trade? Food trade and extreme hunger in developing countries

2019

Food Sec.

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One of the greatest challenges of the twenty-first century is to ensure that the world population has reliable access to adequate, affordable and nutritious food sufficient to avoid hunger. Agricultural trade liberalization is often considered a central element of economic strategies aiming at improving food security in developing countries. Many, however, argue that most developing countries may not benefit from freer agricultural trade and that liberalization may accentuate food insecurity. From an empirical perspective, little is known about the effects of trade on food security in developing countries. We estimated the effects of food trade openness on extreme hunger in developing countries using a novel two-step approach. First, we estimated the reverse causal impacts of hunger on food trade openness using rainfall anomalies as instrumental variables to generate exogenous variation in hunger. In a second step, we estimated the effect of food trade openness on hunger using the residual food trade openness that is not driven by hunger as an instrument. We found that a 10% increase in food trade openness would increase the prevalence of undernourishment by about 6%. We also found evidence that developing countries reduce food trade openness as a response to increased hunger, suggesting protectionist policies. A percentage point increase in undernourishment prevalence would decrease food trade openness by 0.9%. Our results suggest that countries may be better off adopting food self-sufficiency for some time, despite such actions clashing with World Trade Organization's regulations and current agenda.