Does the COVID-19 XBB Omicron subvariant signal the beginning of the end of the pandemic?

Ngiam, Jinghao Nicholas; Al-Mubaarak, Abdurrahmaan; Maurer‐Stroh, Sebastian; Tambyah, Paul Anantharajah

doi:10.4103/singaporemedj.smj-2022-180

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…The XBB lineage is one of these Omicron sub-lineages that emerged around July 2022 by the recombination of BA.2-descendent lineages BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1. Its initial dissemination primarily occurred in Asia, with Singapore witnessing a sharp upsurge in cases attributed to this strain ( 2 – 5 ). Although the XBB lineage demonstrated remarkable immune evasiveness and an effective reproduction number (R e ) ~1.2 times higher than those of parental variants ( 5 – 20 ), it displayed a weaker angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) binding affinity than other immune evasive Omicron subvariants that circulated during the latter half of 2022, such as the BQ.1* lineages prevalent in Western countries ( 5 , 21 , 22 ) .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023

Arantes,

Gomes,

Ito

et al. 2024

Microbiol Spectr

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The SARS-CoV-2 XBB is a group of highly immune-evasive lineages of the Omicron variant of concern that emerged by recombining BA.2-descendent lineages and spread worldwide during 2023. In this study, we combine SARS-CoV-2 genomic data ( n = 11,065 sequences) with epidemiological data of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases collected in Brazil between October 2022 and July 2023 to reconstruct the space-time dynamics and epidemiologic impact of XBB dissemination in the country. Our analyses revealed that the introduction and local emergence of lineages carrying convergent mutations within the Spike protein, especially F486P, F456L, and L455F, propelled the spread of XBB* lineages in Brazil. The average relative instantaneous reproduction numbers of XBB* + F486P, XBB* + F486P + F456L, and XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages in Brazil were estimated to be 1.24, 1.33, and 1.48 higher than that of other co-circulating lineages (mainly BQ.1*/BE*), respectively. Despite such a growth advantage, the dissemination of these XBB* lineages had a reduced impact on Brazil’s epidemiological scenario concerning previous Omicron subvariants. The peak number of SARI cases from SARS-CoV-2 during the XBB wave was approximately 90%, 80%, and 70% lower than that observed during the previous BA.1*, BA.5*, and BQ.1* waves, respectively. These findings revealed the emergence of multiple XBB lineages with progressively increasing growth advantage, yet with relatively limited epidemiological impact in Brazil throughout 2023. The XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages stand out for their heightened transmissibility, warranting close monitoring in the months ahead. IMPORTANCE Brazil was one the most affected countries by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with more than 700,000 deaths by mid-2023. This study reconstructs the dissemination of the virus in the country in the first half of 2023, a period characterized by the dissemination of descendants of XBB.1, a recombinant of Omicron BA.2 lineages evolved in late 2022. The analysis supports that XBB dissemination was marked by the continuous emergence of indigenous lineages bearing similar mutations in key sites of their Spike protein, a process followed by continuous increments in transmissibility, and without repercussions in the incidence of severe cases. Thus, the results suggest that the epidemiological impact of the spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant is influenced by an intricate interplay of factors that extend beyond the virus's transmissibility alone. The study also underlines the need for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance that allows the monitoring of its ever-shifting composition.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023

Arantes,

Gomes,

Ito

et al. 2024

Microbiol Spectr

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“…In Singapore, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) affected predominantly young and healthy migrant workers in 2020, before causing large outbreaks amongst the more elderly and vulnerable local population in 2021 1 . COVID‐19 vaccine rollout was swift in Singapore, but changes in the circulating strains with their increased infectivity and limited vaccine efficacy led to continued outbreaks of the Omicron variant in 2022 and 2023, as in other parts of the world 2 …”

Section: Parameter Moderate‐to‐severe Illness (Required Supplemental ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictors of disease severity in SARS‐CoV‐2 omicron variant XBB sublineages and variants of interest

Ngiam,

Ng,

Toh

et al. 2023

Journal of Medical Virology

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The Omicron variant has been reported to present with milder disease compared with Delta, although this may be due to immunity from vaccination and prior exposure. Predictors of severity with recent strains have not been well characterized. We retrospectively examined consecutive cases of moderate‐to‐severe COVID‐19 (defined as requiring supplemental oxygenation, intensive care or mortality) admitted to seven tertiary hospitals across Singapore in April 2023. Whole genome sequencing was performed on each isolate to determine the sublineage, while baseline clinical, laboratory data and outcomes were tabulated. We reviewed 182 patients with moderate‐to‐severe illness and 466 controls hospitalized at the same time. Advanced age and presence of chronic kidney disease predicted adverse outcome. Previously reported markers such as radiographic evidence of pneumonia, elevated C‐reactive protein and serum creatinine levels at presentation also correlated with adverse outcomes. There were no observable differences in outcomes with any specific Omicron XBB sublineage. We did not find any specific Omicron XBB sublineage that was associated with worse outcomes. Larger multinational studies would be important to track the clinical evolution of the virus in its current endemic state.

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“…The system of replication Equation ( 4) is obtained from Equations ( 1)-( 3) above and analyzed by Jacobi matrix (5).…”

Section: The Stability Analysis Of the Hybrid Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar events also occurred on 31 January 2020, when a rumor about "Shuanghuanglian" [3] as an effective drug for treating COVID-19 was spread on Internet social media, causing many citizens to rush to buy it. In 2023, the Omicron variant XBB.1.5 [4,5] is spreading widely in the United States, causing rumors to spread urging people to stockpile diarrhea drugs such as montmorillonite powder [6], norfloxacin, and intestinal micro-ecological agents. The above events demonstrate that the spread of rumors can cause sudden rushes and hoarding of goods by the public, resulting in a shortage of supplies and seriously affecting normal purchasing order in society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Agent Evolutionary Game Analysis of Group Panic Buying in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic

et al. 2023

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With the global outbreak of COVID-19, the panic-buying incidents triggered by the variants of the Omicron strain have severely affected the normal social order. This paper considers the complex interest game and interactive relationship among multiple subjects in the mass-panic buying event caused by rumors and constructs a three-party evolution game model of local government, rumor-monger, and public. The strategy-selection process of each subject based on evolutionary game theory is studied, and the strategy selection of three game subjects in different situations and related influencing factors are analyzed. Taking the example of the montmorillonite powder panic buying caused by the XBB virus strain rumor in China, the evolutionary game model constructed in this study is simulated and analyzed. The study shows that the evolutionary process of the mass panic-buying event is characterized by six stages: the initial stage; the outbreak stage; the spread stage; the climax stage; the relief stage; and the recovery stage. There are four stable points in the evolutionary game of the three game subjects, namely (no intervention, no rumor, no panic buying), (no intervention, rumor, no panic buying), (intervention, no rumor, no panic buying), and (intervention, rumor, no panic buying). The strategy of government intervention will be adjusted according to the strategy selection of the public and the rumor-monger. Under the mechanism of reward and punishment of the higher-level government, increasing the punishment and reward intensity of the higher-level government will promote the local government to intervene in the rumor-mongering event faster, but increasing the reward intensity has a more significant impact on the intervention behavior of the local government than punishment, and increasing punishment intensity has a more significant impact on the non-rumor-mongering behavior of the rumor-monger than reward. The parameters of social risk-bearing cost, risk transmission coefficient, rumor-mongering income and cost, and public drug purchase cost have different degrees of influence on the evolutionary behavior of game subjects. Therefore, this study provides new ideas for effectively responding to mass panic buying events in the context of public emergencies.

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Does the COVID-19 XBB Omicron subvariant signal the beginning of the end of the pandemic?

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023

Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023

Predictors of disease severity in SARS‐CoV‐2 omicron variant XBB sublineages and variants of interest

Multi-Agent Evolutionary Game Analysis of Group Panic Buying in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic

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