BACKGROUND:The current study was conducted to develop a pretreatment prognostic model for patients with unresectable and/or metastatic urothelial cancer who were treated with first-line, cisplatin-based chemotherapy. METHODS: Individual data were pooled from 399 patients who were enrolled on 8 phase 2 and 3 trials evaluating cisplatin-based, first-line chemotherapy in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma. Variables selected for inclusion in the model were combined in a Cox proportional hazards model to produce a points-based nomogram with which to predict the median, 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year survival. The nomogram was validated externally using data from a randomized trial of the combination of methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin plus cisplatin versus docetaxel plus cisplatin. RESULTS: The median survival of the development cohort was 13.8 months (95% confidence interval, 12.1 months-16.0 months); 68.2% of the patients had died at the time of last follow-up. On multivariable analysis, the number of visceral metastatic sites, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, and leukocyte count were each found to be associated with overall survival (P <.05), whereas the site of the primary tumor and the presence of lymph node metastases were not. All 5 variables were included in the nomogram. When subjected to internal validation, the nomogram achieved a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.626. When applied to the external validation cohort, the nomogram achieved a concordance index of 0.634. Calibration plots suggested that the nomogram was well calibrated for all predictions. CONCLUSIONS: Based on routinely measured pretreatment variables, a nomogram was constructed that predicts survival in patients with unresectable and/or metastatic urothelial cancer who are treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy. This model may be useful in patient counseling and clinical trial design. Cancer 2013;119:3012-9. V C 2013 American Cancer Society.KEYWORDS: urothelial cancer; bladder cancer; prognosis; metastatic; chemotherapy; cisplatin.
INTRODUCTIONContemporary cisplatin-based combination chemotherapy regimens achieve objective responses in approximately 50&percnt to 60% of patients with metastatic urothelial cancer.1,2 Although response durations are generally short, and the median overall survival of patients with unresectable and/or metastatic urothelial cancer is only approximately 14 months, significant heterogeneity exists with regard to patient outcomes.2 Long-term follow-up of clinical trials has demonstrated that approximately 10% to 20% of patients are alive at 5 years.1,3 The ability to predict individual patient outcomes has clear implications with regard to both patient counseling and patient stratification on clinical trials.Prognostic models have previously been developed for chemotherapy-naive patients with unresectable and/or metastatic urothelial cancer. In 1998, Bajorin et al identified Karnofsky performance status and the presence of visceral metastases as independent predictors ...