DOI: 10.1029/2004jd005714
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Abstract: [1] A linear trend estimated from a finite-length data set with random internal variability has a spurious component which is a difference from the true trend caused by changes in external conditions or parameters. Some moments and distribution functions of the spurious trend depending on the length of data are derived theoretically under general statistical assumptions. When the internal variability has a normal distribution, the spurious trend also has a normal distribution. In general cases of nonnormal di…

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