Microfluidic droplet-based
screening of DNA-encoded one-bead-one-compound
combinatorial libraries is a miniaturized, potentially widely distributable
approach to small molecule discovery. In these screens, a microfluidic
circuit distributes library beads into droplets of activity assay
reagent, photochemically cleaves the compound from the bead, then
incubates and sorts the droplets based on assay result for subsequent
DNA sequencing-based hit compound structure elucidation. Pilot experimental
studies revealed that Poisson statistics describe nearly all aspects
of such screens, prompting the development of simulations to understand
system behavior. Monte Carlo screening simulation data showed that
increasing mean library sampling (ε), mean droplet occupancy,
or library hit rate all increase the false discovery rate (FDR). Compounds
identified as hits on k > 1 beads (the replicate k class) were much more likely to be authentic
hits than singletons (k = 1), in agreement with previous
findings. Here, we explain this observation by deriving an equation
for authenticity, which reduces to the product of a library sampling
bias term (exponential in k) and a sampling saturation
term (exponential in ε) setting a threshold that the k-dependent bias must overcome. The equation thus quantitatively
describes why each hit structure’s FDR is based on its k class, and further predicts the feasibility of intentionally
populating droplets with multiple library beads, assaying the micromixtures
for function, and identifying the active members by statistical deconvolution.