Disaster Risk Planning With Fuzzy Goal Programming

Abstract

The uncertainty in the timing and severity of disaster events makes the long‐term planning of mitigation and recovery actions both critical and extremely difficult. Planners often use expected values for hazard occurrences, leaving communities vulnerable to worse‐than‐usual and even so‐called “black swan” events. This research models disasters in terms of their best‐case, most‐likely, and worst‐case damage estimates. These values are then embedded in a fuzzy goal programming model to provide community planners and stakeholders with the ability to strategize for any range of events from best‐case to worst‐case by adjusting goal weights. Examples are given illustrating the modeling approach, and an analysis is provided to illustrate how planners might use the model as a planning tool.