Disaggregation coefficients for obtaining rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves: concepts, models, errors and trends in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Abreu, Marcel Carvalho; Almeida, Laura Thebit de; Silva, Felipe Bernardes; Fraga, Micael de Souza; Lyra, Guilherme Bastos; Souza, Amaury de; Silva, Demétrius David da; Cecílio, Roberto Avelino

doi:10.1080/1573062x.2022.2105237

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The PDFs used were Gumbel, 3‐parameters log‐normal and gamma (Abreu et al, 2023; Lima et al, 2021). PDFs were used after the suitable fit hypothesis obtained from the goodness‐of‐fit test of Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) (Abreu et al, 2022a; Masingi & Maposa, 2021). The EnvStats package (Millard, 2013) was used for probabilistic modelling, in R (R Core Team, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Abreu,

de Souza Fraga,

Lyra

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The study of rainfall trends is crucial for food security and water availability in Alagoas state, Northeast of Brazil. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall trends have been studied (1960–2016) for homogeneous rainfall regions over the eastern part of the Northeast Brazil (ENEB) and later related to climate variability. Cluster analysis was applied to identify homogeneous rainfall regions while the Mann–Kendall (MK), modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used in the analysis and identification of trends on a spatial and temporal scale. To relate rainfall and climate variability modes, Spearman's correlation was used in each homogeneous region. The rainfall series provided evidence of a general decrease in rainfall in the rainy period and an increase in the dry period, mainly over the driest region. The break points of time series occurred mostly in periods of great variations in values of modes of climate variability, especially the Monthly Niño3.4 Index and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), both having a robust influence across the region. Moreover, the probable rainfall in the time series with trends was different in most months before and after the breakpoint. After the breakpoint, probable rainfall was lower, influenced by the breakpoint year (size of the series before and after the breakpoint), which mainly occurred in the 1980s and 1990s and presented a warm phase and a greater number of El Niño events. The MK and MMK trend tests showed the ability to detect trends, although there is no established standard on which test or version to use due to self‐correlated, nonhomogeneous series with nonrandom or nonindependent data. Rainfall is an important variable for water and food security and in the monitoring of natural disasters. The changes detected in this study can be used as reference information for public policies on water resources and future studies for Alagoas and similar regions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Abreu,

de Souza Fraga,

Lyra

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…These tests characterize the series regarding their randomness, independence, stationarity, and distribution condition. Details about parametric tests can be found in Abreu et al (2022).…”

Section: Natural Stream Ow Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, relatively short rainfall series can have the hypotheses of randomness and independence rejected since the Bartels test and the Wald-Wolfowitz test involve deviations between each element of the series and its predecessor in their respective test statistics. Heavy rainfall in uences the test statistics (Abreu et al, 2022).…”

Section: Trend Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme hydroclimatic events based on standardized precipitation (SPI) and streamflow drought (SDI) indices in the headwater region of the Paraíba do Sul River, Southeast Brazil: trends and climate variability

Coelho,

Lyra,

Herms

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The aim of this work were to i) assess the trends and climate variability of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI); ii) identify the relationship between SPI and SDI vs the modes of climate variability ruled by the SST of the Pacific (Tropical and North) and Atlantic (North and South) and, iii) evaluate the ability of the SPI to characterize hydrological extremes (dry/wet) compared to the SDI in the headwaters of the Paraíba do Sul river, southeast Brazil. Long-time monthly rainfall and streamflow series from 1972 to 2016 (45 years) were used. No significant trend (modified Mann-Kendall) was observed for the SPI and SDI annual series. The series showed a higher frequency of positive SPI and SDI between 1972 and 1993 (period 1) and negative ones between 1994 and 2016 (period 2). These decadal patterns were related to the occurrence of the warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with a greater frequency of El-Niño in period 1, and more significant occurrence and intensity of La-Niña in period 2. In the case of the extremes of the SPI and SDI, the most remarkable event of dry (wet) years coincided with years with a negative (neutral or positive) Atlantic Interhemispheric SST Gradient (AITG). Significant correlations exist between the SPI and SDI series at seasonal, semi-annual, and annual scales. However, years with extreme SPI did not necessarily coincide with the SDI, with the opposite also being observed. Therefore, the SPI should be used cautiously for monitoring dry/wet hydrological events.

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Assessing intensity-duration-frequency equations and spatialization techniques across the Grande River Basin in the state of Bahia, Brazil

Barbosa

Neto

Costa

et al. 2022

RBRH

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Understanding the probabilistic behavior of extreme rainfall on a fine temporal and spatial scales is crucial for design and risk assessment of hydraulic structures. However, information at appropriate resolutions is frequently limited or unavailable at the locations of interest, thereby requiring the estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves at the regional scale. In this paper, we resort to simplified approaches for rainfall disaggregation and spatialization for deriving a regional IDF equation for the Grande River catchment, in the Brazilian state of Bahia. Our results suggest that, at the daily time scale, the maximum rainfall amounts can be reasonably described by the light-tailed Gumbel distribution in the study region. The spatialization procedures indicated that, whereas both the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and the ordinary kriging techniques could capture the spatial variability of rainfall quantiles, for several durations of practical interest, only the former was able to model the spatial variability of the IDF parameters. Finally, despite the simplifying assumptions, we were able to derive smooth spatial surfaces for the aforementioned quantities, which might be useful for the design of hydraulic structures at ungauged sites.

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Disaggregation coefficients for obtaining rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves: concepts, models, errors and trends in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Cited by 3 publications

References 50 publications

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Extreme hydroclimatic events based on standardized precipitation (SPI) and streamflow drought (SDI) indices in the headwater region of the Paraíba do Sul River, Southeast Brazil: trends and climate variability

Assessing intensity-duration-frequency equations and spatialization techniques across the Grande River Basin in the state of Bahia, Brazil

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