Digital mapping and predicting the urban growth: integrating scenarios into cellular automata—Markov chain modeling

IŞINKARALAR, Öznur; Varol, Çiğdem; Yιlmaz, Dilara

doi:10.1007/s12518-022-00464-w

Cited by 24 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the context of the path dependence of the development of the spatial form of urban land use, the Markov method is a reliable method for predicting land demand in the relatively near future (several decades) [ 38 , 52 ]. It makes the important assumption that the future transformation of urban land use is based on historical land use and is significantly affected by the transformation of historical land use.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou

Liao

Tang

Shao

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The rapid expansion of different types of urban land continues to erode natural and semi-natural ecological space and causes irreversible ecological damage to rapidly industrialized and urbanized areas. This work considers Quanzhou, a typical industrial and trade city in southeastern China as the research area and uses a Markov chain integrated into the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the urban expansion of Quanzhou from 2005 to 2018. The PLUS model uses the random forest algorithm to determine the contribution of driving factors and simulate the organic and spontaneous growth process based on the seed generation mechanism of multi-class random patches. Next, leveraging the importance of ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity as indicators of evaluation endpoints, we explore the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological risks from 2018 to 2031 under the scenarios of business as usual (BAU), industrial priority, and urban transformation scenarios. The evaluation endpoints cover water conservation service, soil conservation service, biodiversity maintenance service, soil erosion sensitivity, riverside sensitivity, and soil fertility. The ecological risk studied in this work involves the way in which different types of construction land expansion can possibly affect the ecosystem. The ecological risk index is divided into five levels. The results show that during the calibration simulation period from 2005 to 2018 the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient reached 91.77% and 0.878, respectively. When the percent-of-seeds (PoS) parameter of random patch seeds equals 0.0001, the figure of merit of the simulated urban construction land improves by 3.9% compared with the logistic-based cellular automata model (Logistic-CA) considering organic growth. When PoS = 0.02, the figure of merit of the simulated industrial and mining land is 6.5% higher than that of the Logistic-CA model. The spatial reconstruction of multiple types of construction land under different urban development goals shows significant spatial differentiation on the district and county scale. In the industrial-priority scenario, the area of industrial and mining land is increased by 20% compared with the BAU scenario, but the high-level risk area is 42.5% larger than in the BAU scenario. Comparing the spatial distribution of risks under the BAU scenario, the urban transition scenario is mainly manifested as the expansion of medium-level risk areas around Quanzhou Bay and the southern region. In the future, the study area should appropriately reduce the agglomeration scale of urban development and increase the policy efforts to guide the development of industrial land to the southeast.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou

Liao

Tang

Shao

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…City centers can be defined as the most complex area of the city by nature and it is very difficult to explain their dynamic relationships [8,[35][36][37][38]. The public spaces in the city centers can be accepted as the primary communication object of society.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The metropolitan structure and density of urban areas make it difficult to deal with cities in terms of urban economy, design, planning, environment, and aesthetics [5,6]. Difficulties in urban management bring along some problems, such as accessibility, a decrease in quality of life due to density, and the emergence of pollution [7][8][9][10]. One of the most significant of these problems is environmental pollution because it threatens the citizens' health [11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Public Spaces, Public Health, and Heavy Metal Pollution Threatening in Ankara City Center: Strategies for Urban Planning

IŞINKARALAR

BAYRAKTAR

2022

KUJES

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the last century, worldwide population growth and concentration in urban areas cause many problems, especially in the central areas of metropolitan cities. One of these problems is air pollution it reduces the quality of life of the citizens and threatens public health. Among the components of air pollution, heavy metals are the most dangerous because they accumulate in metabolism, some of them are toxic and poisonous even at low concentrations, and they are deadly for human health at high concentrations. Studies on the determination of air pollution are limited to revealing the current situation and do not offer solutions for urban planning. In this context, the accumulation of copper elements, which is extremely dangerous for public health, in plants located in the city center was investigated by using landscape plants as a tool in the research. Within the scope of the study, the change of copper concentration in five plant species grown in areas with no traffic, less dense, and dense areas were investigated. As a result of the research, the increase in the concentration of copper in the air due to traffic has been revealed statistically. The research emphasizes the relationship between heavy metal pollution, which poses a serious threat to public health, and urban planning, and reveals the basic strategies in terms of urban planning.

show abstract

“…Many factors such as nutrient content of soil, soil depth, enzymatic activities, microorganism status, soil structure, and soil texture influence the plant development [13,42]. In fact, although the main factors influencing the plant development are the climatic [43][44][45][46] and edaphic [47][48][49] factors, previous studies showed that microclimatic and microedaphic factors affected the development and phenotypical characteristics of plants more than macro factors did [50][51] because plants get stressed due to various factors such as temperature, water deficiency, frost, UV-B, diseases and pests, and air pollution and it significantly affects plant development and phenotypical characteristics [52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61]. Among these factors, one of the ones influencing the plant development the most is the soil composition, which indicates the nutrient content of the soil [13,32].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change of Calcium Concentrations in Forest Soils by Plant Species and Soil Depth

Erdem

2022

KUJES

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

One of the most important factors playing role in plant development is the nutrient element content of the soil. Being one of the fundamentally necessary macronutrients for plant nourishment, calcium (Ca) plays an important role in the growth and development of a plant. Thus, even though many studies have been carried out on the change of Ca concentration in agricultural soils, the number of studies examining this subject for forest soils is very limited. In the present study, it was aimed to compare the concentrations of Ca in soil and plant organs for the soils, where different forest trees are grown. Within this scope, leaf, bark, wood, cone, and root samples were collected from Turkish fir, black pine, Scotch pine, and Oriental beech species and soil samples were taken from the surface, mid-deep, and deep soil levels. Then, the Ca concentrations were compared. As a result, it was determined that Ca concentrations statistically significantly vary between leaves, roots, and woods of plants and between mid-deep and deep soils by species (p

show abstract

Digital mapping and predicting the urban growth: integrating scenarios into cellular automata—Markov chain modeling

Cited by 24 publications

References 56 publications

Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou

Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou

Urban Public Spaces, Public Health, and Heavy Metal Pollution Threatening in Ankara City Center: Strategies for Urban Planning

Change of Calcium Concentrations in Forest Soils by Plant Species and Soil Depth

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About