Differential responses to thermal variation between fitness metrics

Clavijo‐Baquet, Sabrina; Boher, Francisca; Ziegler, Lucía; Martel, Sebastián I.; Estay, Sergio A.; Bozinovic, Francisco

doi:10.1038/srep05349

Cited by 24 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…For example, recent experimental evidence indicated that under some conditions, changes in EN and generation time can constrain (cancel each other out) changes in r , resulting in a similar daily rate of increase under different scenarios of variability (Clavijo‐Baquet et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Zidon

Tsueda²,

Morin

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Zidon

Tsueda²,

Morin

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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“…; Clavijo‐Baquet et al. ). The development of a widely accepted theoretical basis should relate physiology to population processes and address the role of temperature means and variability at higher ecological levels and their potentially nonadditive interaction shaping performance.…”

Section: Toward a Unifying Experimental Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physiological ecology meets climate change

Bozinovic

Pörtner

2015

Ecology and Evolution

Self Cite

146

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In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms.

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“…More recently, Clavijo‐Baquet et al . () found similar results for the effects of thermal mean and variability on R 0 , r and the generation length T g , of D. melanogaster , with no effects of temperature variation on r despite strong effects on R 0 and T g . Thus, considering that r ≈ ln ( R 0 )/ T g , thermal effects on R 0 and T g cancel each other.…”

Section: Physiology Individual Performance and Fitnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability

et al. 2015

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While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention.

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Differential responses to thermal variation between fitness metrics

Cited by 24 publications

References 41 publications

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Physiological ecology meets climate change

Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability

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