Developments in storm tide modelling and risk assessment in the Australian region

Harper, Bruce; Hardy, Thomas; Mason, Luciano B.; Fryar, R.M.

doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9382-3

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…Results reported in Harper et al (2009) showed that a 10% increase in tropical cyclone intensity produced only a small increase in the 1-in-100 year storm tide, but a larger increase in 1-in-1000 year storm tides.…”

Section: Projected Changes To Extreme Sea Levelsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Information for Australian impact and adaptation planning in response to sea-level rise

McInnes¹,

Church²,

Monselesan³

et al. 2015

AMOJ

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Sea levels along Australia's coastline are influenced by natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. Projections of sea-level rise (SLR) for 2090 for the Australian coastline are similar to the global mean sea-level projections. The global and regional projections are almost independent of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for greenhouse gas emissions chosen for the first decades of the 21 st century, but they begin to diverge significantly from about 2050. For the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5), the rates increase steadily through the 21 st century, reaching almost 12 mm yr -1 by 2100 at all locations. For the intermediate scenarios of RCP 6.0 and RCP 4.5, the rates stabilise in about 2090 and 2060 at about 7-8 and 6 mm yr -1 , respectively. For the strong mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6, requiring significant and urgent mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions), the rate of rise stabilises much earlier than the other scenarios and then reduces slightly to about 4 mm yr -1 . On the north and west coasts of Australia, the observed sea-level trends from the start of the projections in 1996 to 2010 are larger than the model projections as a result of the combined effect of SLR and internal modes of climate variability.The impacts of SLR will be felt most profoundly during extreme sea-level events. The meteorological and climate processes that contribute to extreme sea levels around the coast of Australia are highly regionally heterogeneous. Allowances were calculated that provide estimates of the height that present assets or their protective measures would need to be raised to ensure that the likelihood of exceedance of those levels in the future does not change from the present climate. These allowances vary according to SLR projections, their uncertainties and the variability of extreme sea levels. For 2030, when the uncertainty surrounding future SLR scenarios is small, the allowances are approximately the median projected SLR. However by 2090, the larger uncertainties associated with the projections lead to allowances that typically lie towards the upper end of the range of projected SLR. IntroductionSea-level rise (SLR) is a significant concern for Australia with about half the population living within 7 km of the coast (Chen and McAneney, 2006) and a significant amount of industry and infrastructure located in the coastal zone. Between 22 and 35% of residential dwellings in Australia have been identified as potentially exposed to flooding under a SLR scenario of 1.1 metres (Department of Climate Change, 2009 Coastal infrastructure and coastal ecosystems are most at risk during extreme sea-level events, caused by storm surges and other contributing factors such as astronomical tides. It is therefore of vital importance that credible and robust up-to-date information on SLR projections and the impacts on extreme events are available for coastal planning and adaptation.The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are a major source of SLR information, with ...

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Section: Projected Changes To Extreme Sea Levelsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Information for Australian impact and adaptation planning in response to sea-level rise

McInnes¹,

Church²,

Monselesan³

et al. 2015

AMOJ

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“…Like the US east coast, Australia has a long history of coastal flooding associated with tropical cyclones, with several major events recorded since the late 1880s (Harper et al 2009). The largest death toll of any natural disaster in Australian history occurred in March 1899 when cyclone Mahina hit Bathurst Bay (Queensland), claiming the lives of over 300 people (Nott and Hayne 2000).…”

Section: Australiamentioning

confidence: 99%

USACE Extreme Sea levels

Wallingford¹

2014

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“…Several approaches have been proposed so far, such as JPM-OS (Joint Probability Methods with Optimal Sampling, e.g., Resio, 2007;Toro et al, 2010) or the statistical-deterministic model of Emanuel et al (2006). They have been used successfully for storm surge assessment at local (Lin et al, 2010(Lin et al, , 2012, regional (Harper et al, 2009;Niedoroda et al, 2010) or even continental (Haigh et al, 2014) scales. In the present paper, we use the statistical-deterministic approach of Emanuel et al (2006), which provided good results for Guadeloupe in a previous study (Krien et al, 2015).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Krien¹,

Dudon²,

Roger³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge -up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

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Developments in storm tide modelling and risk assessment in the Australian region

Cited by 18 publications

References 8 publications

Information for Australian impact and adaptation planning in response to sea-level rise

Information for Australian impact and adaptation planning in response to sea-level rise

USACE Extreme Sea levels

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

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