Development of responses based on IPCC and &amp;quot;what-if?&amp;quot; IWRM scenarios

Giannini, Valentina; Ceccato, Lucia; Hutton, Craig W.; Allan, Andrew; Kienberger, Stefan; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert; Giupponi, Carlo

doi:10.5194/asr-7-71-2011

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…which may be hard to predict. Work by Giannini et al (2011) and represent exceptions to this general rule, in that they do include population and economic projections. Efforts are now underway to develop spatially explicit population scenarios for the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (Jones, 2013), but the task of anticipating likely future population distributions can be rendered difficult by unanticipated economic or conflict events that can alter migration patterns.…”

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confidence: 99%

How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature

et al. 2019

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Community-level vulnerability assessments (VAs) are important for understanding how populations experience vulnerabilities to climate change in different ways given local socioeconomic and environmental factors. Despite recent expansion in the literature that evaluates vulnerability at the local level, approaches to understanding future scenarios and to integrating climatic and nonclimatic factors are inconsistent and often lack clear methodological information. This study utilized systematic review methods to characterize and compare future scenarios and the integration of climatic and nonclimatic stimuli in community-focused VAs published over the last five years. Five common methods for assessing future dimensions of vulnerability were characterized. Key challenges regarding sources and scales of information were highlighted alongside methods to integrate data spanning climatic and nonclimatic information at scales ranging from local to global. The majority of VAs considered current and past vulnerability; few VAs incorporated future scenarios and these studies focused on future climatic conditions while largely overlooking changes in nonclimatic drivers of vulnerability. Approaches to evaluate future dimensions of vulnerability included climate model projections, socioeconomic model projections, temporal analogue approaches, longitudinal approaches, and local perceptions. These methods often failed to capture the dynamic interactions between variables through time, as future impacts are unlikely to follow previous patterns of change. To combine datasets of different scales, VAs created vulnerability indices, overlaid spatial datasets, or used expert judgement. These approaches tended to aggregate local characteristics to the regional level at the expense of community specificity. There is a need for methodological advances to assess future scenarios and to combine datasets in the field of community-level climate change VAs to make these studies more responsive to local realities and relevant to the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

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confidence: 99%

How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature

et al. 2019

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“…Whereas many Spatial VAs do include future climate scenarios, they generally do not include projected changes in the spatial distribution of populations or other exposed elements (Preston 2012), which themselves have considerable uncertainties, nor do they generally factor in likely adaptation responses, which may be hard to predict. Work by Giannini et al (2011) and Preston (2013) represent exceptions to this general rule, in that they do include population and economic projections. Efforts are now underway to develop spatially explicit population scenarios for the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (Jones 2013), but the task of anticipating likely future population distributions can be rendered difficult by unanticipated economic or conflict events that can alter migration patterns.…”

Section: Measuring the Exposed Elementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the unmeasurable?

Sherbinin¹

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This thesis is approved by Prof.dr.ir, M.F.A.M. van Maarseveen, promoter Dr. R.V. Sliuzas, co-promoter In 2009 CIESIN, the center at The Earth Institute of Columbia University where I work, was contacted by Koko Warner of the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and Charles Ehrhardt of CARE to develop maps for a report entitled In Search of Shelter. I had the privilege of leading the team of GIS specialists and designers who produced the maps in this report. The report resulted in substantial media attention in part because of the maps CIESIN produced, which complemented field research from the Environmental Change and Forced Migration project (EACH-FOR) (see Chapter 5). This successful collaboration resulted in two more reports that included maps produced under my direction, Where the Rainfalls: Climate Change, Food and Livelihood Security, and Migration (2012) and Evidence from the Frontlines of Climate Change: Loss and Damage to Communities Despite Coping and Adaptation (2012). Since 2012 I have been involved with work under the USAID-funded African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) project. Under ARCC I was able to lead vulnerability mapping projects for Mali and Coastal West Africa, to assist in the development of a spatial vulnerability assessment training program, and to develop a technical report entitled Spatial Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: A Review of Data, Methods and Issues (2014). Through these projects I gained considerable first-hand experience in vulnerability mapping using the spatial index approach, and was able to review the growing literature in this field.

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“…Most prominent and known approaches deal with scenarios of physical changes to the climate system (climate change scenarios, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES], etc. ), while less work has been done on scenarios for vulnerability (Giannini et al , 2011).…”

Section: Vulnerability and Risk Scenarios In Disaster Risk Reduction (Drr) And Climate Change Adaptation (Cca)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events

Birkmann

Sauter

Jamshed

et al. 2020

DPM

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PurposeEnhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning.Design/methodology/approachThe research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress.FindingsThe paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies.Originality/valueThe value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.

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Development of responses based on IPCC and "what-if?" IWRM scenarios

Cited by 10 publications

References 11 publications

How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature

How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature

Mapping the unmeasurable?

Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events

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