Development of a prediction model for fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus: The Basque Country Prospective Complications and Mortality Study risk engine (BASCORE)

Piniés, Jose A.; González-Carril, Fernando; Arteagoitia, José M.; Irigoien, Itziar; Altzibar, Jone M.; Rodriguez-Murua, José L.; Echevarriarteun, Larraitz

doi:10.1007/s00125-014-3370-1

Cited by 37 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In the ERICE study, total cholesterol did not show a statistical association with cardiovascular events, however it was not sufficiently powered to assess the impact of HDL-C. Recent data from a study carried out in patients recently diagnosed with diabetes mellitus [ 16 ], identified the ratio of non-HDL-C to HDL-C as a significant predictor of cardiovascular events, while LDL-C and TC did not show significant associations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study

et al. 2017

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IntroductionThe potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population.MethodsThis prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008–2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles.Results51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92.ConclusionsIn a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study

et al. 2017

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“…7 Several studies have indicated an inverse association between HDL cholesterol and the risk of CVD among patients with type 2 diabetes. [8][9][10] However, only one Japanese study has found an inverse association of HDL cholesterol with total stroke risk among patients with type 2 diabetes in the last 10 years. 18 The present study also found an inverse association between serum HDL cholesterol levels and the risk of total stroke among patients with type 2 diabetes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inverse Association Between HDL (High-Density Lipoprotein) Cholesterol and Stroke Risk Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Shen

Shi

Nauman

et al. 2019

Stroke

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Background and Purpose-Very few studies have assessed the association of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol with stroke risk among patients with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate the association of HDL cholesterol with total and type-specific stroke risk in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods-We performed a retrospective cohort study of 27,113 African Americans and 40,431 whites with type 2 diabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of different levels of HDL cholesterol with stroke risk. Results-During a mean follow-up period of 3.0 years, 8,496 patients developed stroke (8,048 ischemic and 448 hemorrhagic). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios across levels of HDL at baseline (<30 [reference group], 30-39.9, 40-49.9, 50-59.9, 60-69.9, 70-79.9, and ≥80 mg/dL) were 1.00, 0.86, 0.77, 0.71, 0.71, 0.77, and 0.69 (P trend <0.001) for total stroke, 1.00, 0.89, 0.82, 0.75, 0.78, 0.76, and 0.75 (P trend <0.001) for ischemic stroke, and 1.00, 0.89, 0.69, 0.66, 0.47, and 0.94 (P trend =0.021) for hemorrhagic stroke, respectively. When we used an updated mean value of HDL cholesterol, the inverse association of HDL cholesterol with stroke risk did not change. This

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“…Several risk engines have been developed for diabetes patients, targeted at predicting specific disease outcomes such as cardiovascular diseases 17 – 20 , stroke 21 , and end-stage renal disease 22 . However, few studies have been conducted to assess overall mortality risk for diabetes patients.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Point-based Mortality Prediction System for Older Adults with Diabetes

Chang

Huang

Shin

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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The mortality prediction models for the general diabetic population have been well established, but the corresponding elderly-specific model is still lacking. This study aims to develop a mortality prediction model for the elderly with diabetes. The data used for model establishment were derived from the nationwide adult health screening program in Taiwan in 2007–2010, from which we applied a 10-fold cross-validation method for model construction and internal validation. The external validation was tested on the MJ health screening database collected in 2004–2007. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to predict five-year mortality for diabetic patients ≥65 years. A total of 220,832 older subjects with diabetes were selected for model construction, of whom 23,241 (10.5%) died by the end of follow-up (December 31, 2011). The significant predictors retained in the final model included age, gender, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, leukocyte count, liver and renal function, total cholesterol, hemoglobin, albumin, and uric acid. The Harrell’s C in the development, internal-, and external-validation datasets were 0.737, 0.746, and 0.685, respectively. We established an easy-to-use point-based model that could accurately predict five-year mortality risk in older adults with diabetes.

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Development of a prediction model for fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus: The Basque Country Prospective Complications and Mortality Study risk engine (BASCORE)

Abstract: This study is the first southern European validated population-derived model for predicting 5-year fatal/non-fatal CHD and CVD risk in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

Cited by 37 publications

References 42 publications

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study

Inverse Association Between HDL (High-Density Lipoprotein) Cholesterol and Stroke Risk Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

A Point-based Mortality Prediction System for Older Adults with Diabetes

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