Development and Validation of a Web-Based Severe COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model

Abstract

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Fully independent validation of eleven prognostic scores predicting progression to critically ill condition in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

“…The following prediction instruments were applied: 1-COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score; 14 2-Multilobular infiltration, hypo-Lymphocytosis, Bacterial coinfection, Smoking history, hyper-Tension and Age (MuLBSTA) Score, 10 3-Comorbidity, Age, Lymphocyte and LDH (CALL) score; 12 4-ABC-GOALS score; 15 5-Quick COVID-19 severity index (qCSI); 11 6-Kuwait Progression Indicator (KPI) score; 8 7-College of London COVID-19 severity score (Cols) 4 ; 8-Prognostic Index for Clinical Deterioration; 9 9-Severity COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model; 1 10-ANDC score; 16 11–4C Mortality score. 13 …”

“…Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory infection that may be from asymptomatic, to severe cases and death. 1 Since its emergence in December 2019 up to December 2022, COVID-19 has accounted for more than 601 million cases and 6.4 million deaths worldwide and overwhelmed health systems around the world. 2 , 3 The incidence behavior in waves established substantial pressure on health services, especially when crowded hospitals have no room for additional critically ill cases.…”

“…One of the ways to help in this process would be through diagnostic and prognostic instruments at different levels of health care. 1 Prognostic models, scoring systems and prediction tools were developed, validated and used in different health services around the world, for the early identification of potentially serious or critical patients. 1 , 4 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 …”

“… 1 Prognostic models, scoring systems and prediction tools were developed, validated and used in different health services around the world, for the early identification of potentially serious or critical patients. 1 , 4 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 …”

External validation of the COVID-19 4C mortality score in an urban United States cohort

“…Numerous COVID-19 risk prediction models of varying country of origin, population demographic, and robustness exist. 1 , 2 , 3 The 4C Mortality Score, created by the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC), is one of the largest-scale, high-performing predictive models published to date. 4 …”