volume 25, issue 15, P3035-3038 1998
DOI: 10.1029/98gl00841
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Abstract: Abstract. The Ap index is a daily average of the range of magnetic disturbance in each three-hour UT interval. It is the only global magnetic index routinely forecast. Predictions of Ap are subjective estimates made on the basis of past behavior of Ap and events at the Sun. The predicted variance in present forecasts is only 30%. Here we develop a set of linear filters for Ap forecasting. We show that auto regressive filters with constant coefficients do as well as human forecasters. Filters with time varying…

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