Designing systems of operational freshet and high water prediction

Abstract

129River floods, caused by spring freshets and high water of different origins, are among the most danger ous natural disasters in our country. Therefore, the prediction of these processes is of great practical sig nificance and a major problem of modern hydrology. For operational purposes, short term forecasting methods based on the state of the art numerical modeling of wave processes in rivers are particularly important.The practical solution of the problem has gone far beyond purely scientific research and requires the development of technical systems for the collection and transfer of hydrometeorological data about the state of a river basin, as well as the real time use of this data in operational forecasting centers. The foreign experience of developing such centers shows that it is possible to ensure a forecast interval of 7-10 days, which is necessary for practical purposes with an acceptable degree of accuracy.Note that the solution of the problem is primarily topical for the timely warning of the population about the risk of flooding and the time of its occurrence, as well as for the implementation of measures to prevent or mitigate its effects by the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES). However, another equally impor tant objective is to generate operational hydrological forecasts to control of hydropower systems in order to improve their performance during spring and summer freshets and high water and to enhance the use of res ervoir capacities during the detention of excess spring and rain water runoff. The latter should help to improve the reliability of the protection of down stream bottomlands and reduce the associated risks.While abroad, for example in the European com munity, well coordinated work on this important issue has been actively pursued for many years and, as a result, several systems of short term flood forecasting for major river basins have been developed, in our country studies on this problem have just started, and the stage of design and experimental work has not yet been reached.This issue is of great importance not only for fed eral and regional administrations, the Hydrometeoro logical Service, the water economy, and MES, but also for hydropower organizations. The extension of lead times and the enhancement of forecast reliability are very important for the control of flood passage through power sites.The use of advanced mathematical modeling capa bilities in hydrological forecasting, as well as the estab lishment of systems for monitoring and collecting information about the hydrological condition of major river basins and its transfer to the information model ing forecasting centers by the latest communications equipment, including satellites, makes it technically possible to carry out the entire prediction process in real time and send the results to interested parties dur ing the formation and propagation of the waves of freshets and high water. The development and use of the considered systems of short term forecasting can be a good basis for the modernization of the ...

Creation of Intelligent Information Flood Forecasting Systems Based on Service Oriented Architecture

“…The number of floods is forecast to continue in the foreseeable future, and there is an emerging trend of growth of the total number of large-scale natural hydrological disasters [1][2][3]. In the current situation, the forecasting of floods caused by spring floods and freshets of various origins is one of the main components of providing for the safety of settlements located in river valleys and it is an important scientific problem [4].…”