Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship—an interdisciplinary literature review

Abstract

The term tipping point has experienced explosive popularity across multiple disciplines over the last decade. Research on social-ecological systems (SES) has contributed to the growth and diversity of the term's use. The diverse uses of the term obscure potential differences between tipping behavior in natural and social systems, and issues of causality across natural and social system components in SES. This paper aims to create the foundation for a discussion within the SES research community about the appropriate use of the term tipping point, especially the relatively novel term 'social tipping point.' We review existing literature on tipping points and similar concepts (e.g. regime shifts, critical transitions) across all spheres of science published between 1960 and 2016 with a special focus on a recent and still small body of work on social tipping points. We combine quantitative and qualitative analyses in a bibliometric approach, rooted in an expert elicitation process. We find that the term tipping point became popular after the year 2000-long after the terms regime shift and critical transition-across all spheres of science. We identify 23 distinct features of tipping point definitions and their prevalence across disciplines, but find no clear taxonomy of discipline-specific definitions. Building on the most frequently used features, we propose definitions for tipping points in general and social tipping points in SES in particular.

Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia

“…Depending on the focus of research, definitions for TPs in socioecological systems and land use change can, but do not necessarily have to, include different concepts [10]. Here, we did not focus on specific concepts to define TPs.…”

“…Instead, we describe TPs as deviations from normal fluctuations in the presence of underlying trends [17]. Nevertheless, we address some of the concepts (indicated by quotation marks in the following paragraph) commonly used in research on socioecological systems and land use change according to Milkoreit et al [10].…”

“…Using the concept of TPs to analyze socioecological systems has gained considerable momentum in academia in recent years [10]. Milkoreit et al [10] deduced the concepts most frequently used for defining TPs across scientific disciplines (natural science, social science, and socioecological systems).…”

“…Milkoreit et al [10] deduced the concepts most frequently used for defining TPs across scientific disciplines (natural science, social science, and socioecological systems). In their review, the majority of literature on land use change and socioecological systems involve the concepts of "Multiple Stable States" and "Abruptness".…”

“…Concepts involving "Feedbacks" are frequently used in socioecological system research, whereas land use change research often involves the concept of "Irreversibility". The term "Tipping Point" is increasingly used in research on socioecological systems to describe phenomena comparable to the better known term "Regime Shift" in ecological systems [10]. We refer to a general definition for TPs from van Nes et al [11]: "Any situation where accelerating change caused a positive feedback [that] drives the system to a new state".…”