Deciphering the effect of climate change and separating the influence of confounding factors in sediment core records using additive models

Simpsona, Gavin L.; Anderson, Nicholas

doi:10.4319/lo.2009.54.6_part_2.2529

Cited by 78 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…To address this shortcoming, new sedimentary indicators are being developed to generate independent records of past E and m flux, including use of organic compounds (e.g., alkenones) to reconstruct past water-column temperature (Zink et al 2001;Powers et al 2004) and stable H isotopes in lipids to quantify historical changes in water influx (Huang et al 2004). Similarly, new time-series approaches such as dynamic linear models (Cottingham et al 2000), multispecies autoregressive models (Hampton et al 2006), wavelet analysis (Keitt 2008), and multivariate analysis of variance homogeneity (Anderson 2006) have been used to identify the mechanisms causing ecosystem variability, while the next generation of additive mixed models shows great promise for identifying how the importance of E and m flux can change independently through time (Simpson and Anderson 2009).…”

Section: Future Challenges and Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paleolimnological evidence of the effects on lakes of energy and mass transfer from climate and humans

Leavitt

Fritz

Anderson

et al. 2009

Limnology & Oceanography

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174

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The premise of this article is that climate effects on lakes can be quantified most effectively by the integration of process-oriented limnological studies with paleolimnological research, particularly when both disciplines operate within a common conceptual framework. To this end, the energy (E)-mass (m) flux framework (Em flux) is developed and applied to selected retrospective studies to demonstrate that climate variability regulates lake structure and function over diverse temporal and spatial scales through four main pathways: rapid direct transfer of E to the lake surface by irradiance, heat, and wind; slow indirect effects of E via changes in terrestrial development and subsequent m subsidies to lakes; direct influx of m as precipitation, particles, and solutes from the atmosphere; and indirect influx of water, suspended particles, and dissolved substances from the catchment. Sedimentary analyses are used to illustrate the unique effects of each pathway on lakes but suggest that interactions among mechanisms are complex and depend on the landscape position of lakes, catchment characteristics, the range of temporal variation of individual pathways, ontogenetic changes in lake basins, and the selective effects of humans on m transfers. In particular, preliminary synthesis suggests that m influx can overwhelm the direct effects of E transfer to lakes, especially when anthropogenic activities alter m subsidies from catchments.The structure and function of lake ecosystems is regulated by complex interactions among climate, humans, ecosystem morphology, and catchment characteristics, each of which varies in time and space (Schindler 2001). For example, climatic controls range from daily meteorological variations in local irradiance, temperature, and water fluxes (Keller 2007) through to large-scale interactions of the atmosphere and oceans (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994;Hurrell 1995;Mantua et al. 1997) and millennium-long changes in energy (E) and mass (m) flux around the planet (Williams et al. 1997;Diffenbaugh et al. 2006). Within this framework, chemical, physical, and ecological processes combine to determine the production and composition of aquatic communities, both uniquely and in consort with other mechanisms (Carpenter 1999). In addition, lakes are affected both by human disturbance of biotic communities and biogeochemical cycles (e.g., land use, urbanization, fisheries management) and by creation of novel stressors (e.g., acidic precipitation, toxicants, ozone loss). However, because these factors interact over diverse spatial and temporal scales, it is difficult to determine the relative importance of regulatory processes using only traditional site-based observation and experimentation. Instead, it is the premise of this article that the combined use of limnology and paleoecology represents the best means to quantify and scale interactions between climate and other control mechanisms and to develop a hierarchical understanding of how these regulatory processes are likely to influence lakes pres...

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Section: Future Challenges and Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paleolimnological evidence of the effects on lakes of energy and mass transfer from climate and humans

Leavitt

Fritz

Anderson

et al. 2009

Limnology & Oceanography

Self Cite

169

174

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show abstract

“…Simpson and Anderson (2009) begin to address this problem by developing a new modeling approach using additive models to decipher the relative contributions of different forcing variables on changes in sedimentary diatom species composition through time.…”

Section: Lakes and Reservoirs As Integrators Of Past Climate Change-mentioning

confidence: 99%

Lakes and reservoirs as sentinels, integrators, and regulators of climate change

Williamson

Saros

Vincent

et al. 2009

Limnology & Oceanography

658

393

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Climate change is generating complex responses in both natural and human ecosystems that vary in their geographic distribution, magnitude, and timing across the global landscape. One of the major issues that scientists and policy makers now confront is how to assess such massive changes over multiple scales of space and time. Lakes and reservoirs comprise a geographically distributed network of the lowest points in the surrounding landscape that make them important sentinels of climate change. Their physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate provide a variety of information-rich signals. Their sediments archive and integrate these signals, enabling paleolimnologists to document changes over years to millennia. Lakes are also hot spots of carbon cycling in the landscape and as such are important regulators of climate change, processing terrestrial and atmospheric as well as aquatic carbon. We provide an overview of this concept of lakes and reservoirs as sentinels, integrators, and regulators of climate change, as well as of the need for scaling and modeling these responses in the context of global climate change. We conclude by providing a brief look to the future and the creation of globally networked sensors in lakes and reservoirs around the world.

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“…Such reconstructions for local forcings and responses were based on classical and/or newly developed paleo-proxies (Table 1). Finally, the respective contribution of climate change vs. local forcings in driving observed ecological changes, such as the time-period at which they contributed to these changes, could be hierarchized, based on Generalized additive models (GAM, Simpson and Anderson, 2009). (Savichtcheva et al, 2011(Savichtcheva et al, , 2014 Bourget (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) Geneva (1977-) Annecy (1992-) Pico-cyanobacteria abundances and taxonomic composition Q-PCR Sequencing* on 16SrRNA gene +ITS (Domaizon et al, 2013) Littoral and benthic chironomids Spatially structured chironomid assemblages (Frossard et al, , 2014 Daphnia gene flow Micro-satelitte analyses of Daphnia resting eggs (Alric, 2012) Geochemistry Carbon cycling δ 13 C of sub-fossil remains (Perga, 2010(Perga, , 2011Frossard et al, 2014Frossard et al, , 2015 Hypoxic volumes 3D Distribution of laminated sediments (Jenny et al, , 2014a Lakes Geneva, Bourget, and Annecy are young lakes originating from the last deglaciation, located on the northwest edge of the French Alps (Figure 1).…”

Section: General Rationalementioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution paleolimnology opens new management perspectives for lakes adaptation to climate warming

et al. 2015

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Varved lake sediments provide opportunities for high-resolution paleolimnological investigations that may extend monitoring surveys in order to target priority management actions under climate warming. This paper provides the synthesis of an international research program relying on >150 years-long, varved records for three managed perialpine lakes in Europe (Lakes Geneva, Annecy, and Bourget). The dynamics of the dominant, local human pressures, as well as the ecological responses in the pelagic, benthic, and littoral habitats were reconstructed using classical and newly developed paleo-proxies. Statistical modeling achieved the hierarchization of the drivers of their ecological trajectories. All three lakes underwent different levels of eutrophication in the first half of the XXth century, followed by re-oligotrophication. Climate warming came along with a 2 • C increase in air temperature over the last century, to which lakes were unequally thermally vulnerable. Unsurprisingly, phosphorous concentration has been the dominant ecological driver over the last century. Yet, other human-influenced, local environmental drivers (fisheries management practices, river regulations) have also significantly inflected ecological trajectories. Climate change has been impacting all habitats at rates that, in some cases, exceeded those of local factors. The amplitude and ecological responses to similar climate change varied between lakes, but, at least for pelagic habitats, rather depended on the intensity of local human pressures than on the thermal effect of climate change. Deep habitats yet showed higher sensitivity to climate change but substantial influence of river flows. As a consequence, adapted local management strategies, fully integrating nutrient inputs, fisheries management, and hydrological regulations, may enable mitigating the deleterious consequences of ongoing climate change on these ecosystems.

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Deciphering the effect of climate change and separating the influence of confounding factors in sediment core records using additive models

Cited by 78 publications

References 29 publications

Paleolimnological evidence of the effects on lakes of energy and mass transfer from climate and humans

Paleolimnological evidence of the effects on lakes of energy and mass transfer from climate and humans

Lakes and reservoirs as sentinels, integrators, and regulators of climate change

High-resolution paleolimnology opens new management perspectives for lakes adaptation to climate warming

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