Current Trends in the Dynamics of International Capital Flows

Abstract

Global economic and financial crisis 2007–2009 had a devastating effect on international capital flows. An assessment of their dynamics over the past decade shows that in certain fields (for example, the volume of international debt securities circulating) the pre-crisis indicators were exceeded, in a number of areas they are close to the pre-crisis level (foreign direct investments, total capitalization of the world stock market), international bank lending remains significantly behind the pre-crisis values. In the leading world economies cross-border capital flows relative to GDP significantly decreased compared to 2007. Global imbalances between savings and investments continued to grow, though their structure by countries changed, and now developed countries play a key role in them. In the structure of international capital flows the main shift occurred from the other to portfolio investment, with a slight increase in the role of direct investment. The “quantitative easing” policy in the USA and euro zone has had a significant impact on international capital flows. With generally positive trends in international capital movements in 2017–2018, new threats to their developments are beginning to emerge, primarily in countries with emerging markets.